How Things Will Play Out

I think this gets it right. In particular, I hope most of you have learned that predictions that the Republican coalition is about to come apart at the seams are frequent while cases of it actually happening have been non-existent. One of the central realities of American politics is that the Republican coalition (in part because of inherent institutional advantages) is a lot more coherent than the Democratic one. I’ll also add that I don’t think that the prospect defense cuts will be give the Democrats the leverage that many people expect — always remember that it’s cutting taxes on the affluent that’s the true Republican bottom line.