I’m not one who immediately wrote off Michele Bachmann’s chances to secure the GOP nomination, and Scott L’s observations on July 11 are sensible. Over at The Democratic Strategist, however, there’s a good piece on why Bachmann is potentially encountering obstacles. I discount the argument that “intensified scrutiny of her background and character” could cause problems. She’s already well established as batshit crazy and yet her credibility isn’t suffering: she’s “leading” in the current PPP poll of Republican voters (though by 1% it’s within the MoE, and she’s well behind in all others.) I’m not sure what revelations could possibly come out that would render her brand of crazy unsustainable.
Where this TDS piece gets it right is the challenge provided by Rick Perry, who is looking more likely to announce his candidacy. They appeal to the same constituency in the Republican Party, yet Perry (correctly) is considered more electable by the elite in the party. But in reality, only marginally so; at this early stage in the game the strongest opposition to Obama remains Mitt Romney.