Unlikely

My answer to MMF’s question, alas, is that I think it’s highly unlikely that the Dems will take back the House in 2006, even if the polls continue to be favorable. Sophisticated computer gerrymandering means that very, very few seats are in play no matter how bad national polls look for the GOP. The Democrats have a better chance of pulling off some upsets in the Senate (which isn’t trivial; even if they can’t take it back, every seat is important.) Comparisons with 1994 are particularly unrealistic, given how much of that was based on very conservative Southern districts finally going Republican. Expectations should be kept modest; even picking up a few seats would be very impressive, and that should be kept in mind.

UPDATE: Make sure to look at the comments; some more optimistic analysis from Nick and Matthew….