The Clouded Crystal Ball
By Alright, I guess now that we’re Opening Day +2, I’d better offer my predictions for the upcoming season. So:
AL East: NY, Bos (WC), Bal, Tor, TB
You won’t see these picks anywhere else! Actually, the top of the division is basically a coin flip. The good news for Yankee haters is that Steinbrenner has turned the treadmill he largely shut off after the team’s collapse in the late 80s back on. The team is old and terrible defensively. A still-formidable core is being surrounded by stiffs like Martinez and Womack, and Giambi has to be a concern. Wright is an awful signing–a pitcher coming off his first good year since 1998 leaving Bobby Cox? Pass with extreme prejudice–and Pavano is dubious. (Let’s just say that Vazquez had much better credentials than either of them before he came to New York.) Had the Diamondbacks not generously donated Randy Johnson to the cause, the Red Sox would be a clear-cut pick–but they did. The Red Sox could win, but their rotation certainly has its own question marks. Indeed, I think the Yankees’ better rotation will slightly exceed the Red Sox’s offensive advantage. If Johnson gets hurt, though…
AL Central: Min, Cle, Det, Chi, KC
The easiest division to pick in baseball. Cleveland has become a trendy upset pick; analysts will sometime respond to a good organization by prematurely picking the team to win. (The Baseball Prospectus started picking the Twins to win the division three years before they did.) Shapiro has done a good job, but they’ll regress a bit this year, especially with Sabathia’s health problematic. The White Sox are in serious decline; it’s amazing how much talent they’ve shed in three years. Sometimes teams like this will win just as you give up on them, but I sure don’t see it. The offense will really miss Ordonez, Lee and Valentin and the pitching isn’t great. I think the Tigers will pass them.
AL West: LA of Ana of OC of CA of US, Oak, Sea, Tex
Oakland are the most underrated team; the over 77 bet on them was the best features bet of the pre-season. People worried about losing the big 3 forget that the big 3 weren’t the big 3 last year; it’s very possible that their pitching will be better. I still like LA a touch more, especially offensively (although the Angels have serious holes), but if Escobar is seriously hurt Oakland will win the division. Texas will meet the Plexiglas principle, and will be slightly passed by Seattle on the way up, although I don’t expect either to be .500. Seattle is improved but the rotation isn’t good enough to contend.
NL East: Phi, Fla (WC), Atl, NY, Wash
Picking against Bobby Cox is obviously stupid, but I think the Shotton Syndrome (teams that replace high-pressure managers with Charlie Manual-like ciphers generally improve greatly in the first year) will carry Philly over the top, although Florida will be a serious contender if their pitchers stay healthy. You can’t discount Atlanta, either, of course–any of the 3 could win. The Mets are greatly improved; their offense is a superstar backed up with what could be plus production from every position except first, and Pedro will have a tremendous year at Shea if he’s healthy. But beyond Pedro every starter is highly questionable, and the bullpen’s awful. I don’t think they can contend unless Omar pulls a lot of rabbits out of the hat. Washington will be the same team in a lesser city, although not terrible; this has replaced the AL West as the most competitive division in baseball.
NL Central: STL, Chi, Hou, Cin, Mil, Pitt
St. Louis is almost as easy a pick as Minnesota, although I’m not sure the starting pitching will be as good even with the addition of Mulder. The Cubs are interesting, the usual combination of talent and serious holes. As always, I don’t think they’ll get enough people on base. The Astros are the ultimate example of how teams build against their stadium; excellent (though again) rotation, terrible offense. Cincinnati, of course, is the opposite (with the Astros’ rotation, they could win 105 games.) I’ll pick Milwaukee over Pittsburgh for the hell of it, and because the former made one of the best moves of the offseason (getting Lee for Podsednik.)
NL West: LA, SD, SF, Col, Ari.
Chris Russo, who thinks his Giants are the best team in the league, is in for one serious disappointment. The team is old and the offense apart from Bonds is poor, and their #3 starter is still Kirk Reuter. I admire Alou, but with Bonds missing a couple months and potentially suffering the effects of injury, I don’t think they’ll win even this weak division. The Dodgers aren’t great either, I think they’ll squeak out another title. San Diego is like Cleveland; I’ll probably pick them in 2006. The oddsmakers seem to think that Arizona will be massively improved–their over/under was only a little lower than Oakland’s–but I’ll be damned if I can understand why; they won’t lose 110 again but they’re terrible. Which, admittedly, still may be good enough to beat the Rockies, but that’s it.
World Series: Oh, let’s say St. Louis over New York.