Why do election models hate Karl Rove?

The next issue of PS will contain 7 election models, 6 of which predict a Bush victory. I don’t think this should influence expectations at all (remember, almost all predicted a solid Gore victory.) What it tells us is that the exogenous factors overwhelmingly favor Bush, which makes the fact that Kerry is in fact the current favorite a tribute to he and his team (and a further repudiation of the idea of Karl Rove, super-genius.)

I would also like to note that the model co-created by Charles Tien of Hunter College is the one that predicts a Kerry win. Since it’s obviously the most reliable one, that’s even better news…