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The Sky Is Not Falling

In General
On February 7, 2018
In one of the comment threads last week, commenters were flipping out because of one weird Monmouth poll that showed a significant improvement in Republican polling numbers. And yes, Republican poll numbers have improved slightly from their depths a couple of months ago. But let’s keep things in perspective: it’s one poll 9 months from […]
As Erik points out, Silver has positive news for Obama in Ohio.  Much of this optimism hangs on the house effect of the recent Gravis Marketing poll; measuring and adjusting for house effects can be a bit of an art.  House effects can also vary from election to election, which to my mind makes reliable inferences […]
I, and several others, suggested that in the wake of Nick Griffin’s appearance on the BBC, support for his non-racist British National Party would not appreciably increase. Indeed, Andrew Rawnsley writes a scathing, at times hilarious, piece in “Comment is Free” in today’s Observer, in which he admits surprise that Griffin turned out to be […]

Now this is impressive

On September 23, 2008

Bush’s approval rating has sunk to 19% in the latest ARG poll. That’s lower than Nixon’s the week he resigned. Probably the most telling stat in the breakdown is that Dubya has an 8%

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