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The Sky Is Not Falling

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In General
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On February 7, 2018
In one of the comment threads last week, commenters were flipping out because of one weird Monmouth poll that showed a significant improvement in Republican polling numbers. And yes, Republican poll numbers have improved slightly from their depths a couple of months ago. But let’s keep things in perspective: it’s one poll 9 months from […]
As Erik points out, Silver has positive news for Obama in Ohio.  Much of this optimism hangs on the house effect of the recent Gravis Marketing poll; measuring and adjusting for house effects can be a bit of an art.  House effects can also vary from election to election, which to my mind makes reliable inferences […]
I, and several others, suggested that in the wake of Nick Griffin’s appearance on the BBC, support for his non-racist British National Party would not appreciably increase. Indeed, Andrew Rawnsley writes a scathing, at times hilarious, piece in “Comment is Free” in today’s Observer, in which he admits surprise that Griffin turned out to be […]

Now this is impressive

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On September 23, 2008

Bush’s approval rating has sunk to 19% in the latest ARG poll. That’s lower than Nixon’s the week he resigned. Probably the most telling stat in the breakdown is that Dubya has an 8%

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