RealClearPolitics generic House ballot average on June 8:
2010: GOP 42.8%, Dem 42.3%
2014: GOP 41.8%, Dem 41.3%
2018: Dem 46.0%, GOP 38.4%
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 8, 2018
Sargent has more about how the Dems are blowing it:
Because so many of us got it wrong in 2016, we often adopt a kind of defensive crouch as we interpret the current political moment. We constantly ask whether we’re missing something about President Trump — maybe his abysmally low numbers don’t mean what they ordinarily should; maybe the normal rules of midterm elections really won’t apply this time, because Trump is spreading so much chaos that nothing is conventional anymore. Etc., etc.
But what if the normal rules are on track to holding? What if Trump, despite his small uptick in the polls, really is deeply unpopular, and a backlash against Trump really is the driving factor in our politics right now, just as a backlash against previous presidents drove previous midterm waves enjoyed by the opposition?
A new NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll suggests this might be the case. It finds that Democrats lead among registered voters nationally in the House generic ballot matchup by 50 percent to 40 percent.
But even more tellingly, the poll finds that by a whopping margin of 48-23, voters are more likely to support a congressional candidate who promises to be a check on Trump. And by 53-31, they are less likely to vote for a candidate who has supported Trump’s positions more than 90 percent of the time.
It also really should be noted that the fact that there’s any question at all whether the Democrats will take back the House, given that their candidates will get many more votes, represents a serious anti-democratic aspect of American constitutionalism.