NFL Open Thread: Wild Card Saturday
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Our playoff podcast is here for those who missed it. Where I’ve landed as of now:
Rams at Panthers (+10.5): Despite the Panthers getting a fluky win in their one meeting this year, this is about as lopsided a playoff matchup as you’ll ever see, with the third-best team in the NFL’s worst division facing either the best or second-best team in the NFL depending how much you want to downgrade the Rams for their poor special teams and how much/little you trust Sam Darnold. My official gambling advice would be to take Carolina and the points, since 1)the weather forecast looks terrible, and 2)home underdogs this big almost always cover in the playoffs. But subjectively I see a blowout as more likely that a game that is in doubt in the fourth quarter.
Packers and Bears (+1.5): Another home dog, with the Packers ranked eleventh in DVOA despite their late swoon and the Bears 16th despite their late improvement. The difficulty, of course, is that the Packers are missing their best defensive player and their near-elite starting QB also has uncertain health status. If forced to bet, I guess I would take the Bears, but the bet I’m actually making here in Nevada is over 44.5 — snow is less score-suppressive than rain and both teams have much better offenses than defenses right now.