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The Most Important Factor In 2020 Will Be Donald Trump

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djw corrects a common misperception:

Roosevelt wasn’t running on the New Deal (or anything like it) in 1932. He was promising to cut fraud and waste in the federal government, decrying Hoover’s profligate spending during lean times. He red-baited Hoover.

What remade the map that year was retrospective economic voting on a massive scale, and had very little to do with Roosevelt’s rather banal, timid campaign.

And, to bring things full circle, the 1936 campaign which is often cited by people who erroneously see the New Deal as a period of uncompromising labor liberalism (he WELCOMED THEIR HATRED!) was followed by 1)austerity and 2)the takeover of Congress by the conservative coalition following failed primary challenges against Dixiecrats, which would last until LBJ finally broke it up.

Messaging is, in short, massively overrated in significance. And Donald Trump’s popularity and the state of the economy will be far more important to the outcome of the election than the messaging or tactics of the Democratic candidate. Which is why it’s silly to talk about Russia or anything that hurts Trump’s popularity as a DISTRACTION — anything that makes him less popular is important, up and down ballot.

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