It matters just as much if your GOP rep is voting against this bill. To call and say “Hey thanks”? Not remotely.
If your Republican Rep is voting ‘no’, it’s still their vote and their seat which makes Paul Ryan the Speaker. That’s making this possible. If their seat was held by a Democrat (and obviously a number of seats more, not just that one) this wouldn’t be happening. So it’s not just about their vote. They make the majority possible. And that’s why this is happening. So really, they are just as responsible as the Republicans are voting “yes”. That’s true as a factual matter. As a matter of political strategy, if you want to protect the coverage of those 24 million people, you should let them know that you plan to hold them responsible for this. The heat on them will matter a lot because they have little real incentive to try to stop the train if they think they’re off the hook because they voted “no”. This is very important.
I guarantee you there are many conversations between ‘no’ voting Republican Reps and House leadership in which it’s a very straightforward arrangement. “I wish you guys the best but I need to vote ‘no’. It won’t fly in my district.” For a certain number, the leadership says, “We understand. We’ll give you a pass. We have the votes.” So the “no” voting Rep thinks he or she is covered. I’m in the clear. They shouldn’t be for the reasons I’ve stated above. In many cases, they are perfectly happy to see the 24 million go to the butcher block. Because it’s not on them. Or they don’t think it will be. It’s important for constituents to let them know that is not how they see it.
If your Rep is a diehard “yes” in a safe district, you should still call. Why? First, no one is ever that safe. But the more important point is that when people in safe seats hear more than they expected, they will rightly get the sense that other people in their caucus might go down to defeat. So they may no longer be in the majority. Especially today, parties operate as units. No representative is an island.
Another point to consider is that this seems likely to pass by maybe as little as one or two votes. What does that mean? That means that every Republican “yes” on their own could have made the difference. Let’s say this literally passes by one vote. That means your Republican Rep, alone, could have saved coverage for 24 million people. And so could that other Republican Rep who represents your cousin in other state. Funny how that works, isn’t it? But it’s true. That’s powerful. That’s the making of 30 seconds ads.
I could rattle off a list of other scenarios. But the point is that you should call basically no matter what. The utility and impact may not be as obvious. But often, the impact is almost as great as it would be if you were calling someone who was actually wavering. Sometimes greater. The over-arching point is don’t fall for the silliness of vote count literalism. Call. It matters.
The main takeaway from this horrid bill is this tweet from last night. And the central point that I have made over and over–the threat this nation faces is at most 20% Trump. The threat is at least 80% the Republican Party and what it stands for. And I don’t know really know if our freedoms can survive decades of this.
This is literally the central ideological point of the Republican Party. https://t.co/xuA8GuUmW9
— Erik Loomis (@ErikLoomis) May 4, 2017