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I recent had a discussion with Amanda Marcotte about the Supreme Court and my articles looking at the past term and the term to come, which is available in convenient, portable podcast form.
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Just finished Toobin’s “The Oath,” and Tim feels VERY scared about the VRA. Roberts is a charismatic bullshit artist of the highest rate. I think it’s time for Scalia and Kennedy to retire
Scalia isn’t retiring with a Democrat in the White House.
I am we’ll aware.
If Brennan, Marshall & Douglas for health reasons can retire with Republicans in the White House, what Scalia will do remains to be seen.
Unless he is awfully sick (which doesn’t seem to be the case) or become awfully sick, I dont see Scalia retiring while Obama is in the WH. Douglas was extremely ill at the time of his retirement, having suffered a debilitating stroke, and even with that had to be “persuaded” to retire (the Court had decided not to issue opinion where he was the deciding vote and, even after his retirement, he tried to issue a dissenting opinion). Dont know how ill Marshall or Brennan were at the time of their retirement but they were both considerably older than Scalia is now.
Of course, there is no way of knowing for sure what is in Scalia’s mind but I would lay ten to one against Scalia retiring in the next four years.
At his age, even with his social class, I wouldn’t lay 10 to 1 on him being alive in 4 years. 5 to 1 yes. I think fair odds lie around 8 to 1.
Of course Scalia will retire with a Demcocrat in the White House–he’ll never make it to the end of Hillary’s second term . . .
Above was me
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Paul Campos, Above the Law 2011 Lawyer of the Year
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