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Numbers

[ 17 ] November 2, 2012 |

The Labor Department released its final pre-election jobs report a little over an hour ago.  This was never going to have more than a marginal effect on the election this late in the game, as economic measures have long since been baked into the polling numbers and approval ratings (not to mention the voting decisions either made or already cast), but they’re good for the President.  171,000 jobs created, unemployment only slips a statistically insignificant 0.1% from 7.8% to 7.9%, and the jobs growth for August and September were significantly revised upward.

So, while the MSM have been breathlessly awaiting these numbers, they’re not going to impact the election.  The report will have two results, however:

First, the wingnut response, or in the words of one retweet I read, “The jobs numbers come out today, and either they prove Obama is a complete failure or that he cooked the books. Those are the only choices.”

Second, this excellent explanatory post with really cool graphs at Calculated Risk.

h/t Nicholas Dronen

Comments (17)

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  1. JKTHs says:

    No it’ll be “Look the unemployment rate went up!” In fact, it already is

  2. actor212 says:

    Man, what is it with conservatives: “If things don’t prove I’m right, they’re wrong!”?

  3. bradP says:

    First, the wingnut response, or in the words of one retweet I read, “The jobs numbers come out today, and either they prove Obama is a complete failure or that he cooked the books. Those are the only choices.”

    I wonder if they will notice that these encouraging numbers and this recovery are happening during a time when government payrolls are drastically shrinking.

    • Malaclypse says:

      I wonder if they will notice that these encouraging numbers and this recovery are happening during a time when government payrolls are drastically shrinking.

      You know, Brad, right in the Calculated Risk graph galleries, you can see that government payrolls stopped shrinking, and are in fact rising, albeit slowly, and not to pre-recession levels.

      But keep fucking that walrus.

      • JKTHs says:

        Well government payrolls were down 13K this month but were up a total of 80K over the past two. It seems the state and local black hole is closing up but that’s after imposing a straitjacket on employment.

        • howard says:

          there are a few different ways to look at what the level of government employment would be if we had done what we normally do during a recession, whether a republican or democrat is president, and that is provide assistance to the states so they wouldn’t lay off people into the teeth of a recession and make it worse, but what they amount to is that the unemployment rate would be a full percentage point lower (and with all those extra people working, earning, and consuming, gdp would probably be a tad higher).

    • Davis X. Machina says:

      I was getting ready for speech-and-debate class, doing the fallacy-of-the-day Powerpoint, and lo and behold, it’s time to do AAB.(1)

      No googling needed for today’s example, no siree.

      )1)(AAB is ‘After Ain’t Because’ — Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc is so old school.)

    • JUST IMAGINE HOW BETTER THINGS WOULD BE IF HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF GOVERNMENT WORKERS WERE STILL DRAWING A PAYCHECK

      • Malaclypse says:

        To an Austrian, government workers are always crowding out the private sector, pretty much by definition.

        That said, Austrian economics is horseshit.

        • RedSquareBear says:

          It’s not even Economics.

          Economics may only be a science in the looser definitions of the term but Austrian Economics seems more related to the Folklore than the Economics department.

          Seriously, Austrian Economics:Economics :: Economics:Physics.

          • Malaclypse says:

            Austrian Economics:Economics :: Economics Astrology:Physics

            Always remember, boys and girls: Hayek proved conclusively that the platform of the 1948 British Labour Party would lead, inevitably, to totalitarianism.

    • Cody says:

      It was a silly plan by Obama. After all, Republicans still accuse Obama of overseeing a massive increase in government even though he’s overseen a massive decrease in it’s size.

      I’m not sure what he expected to accomplish, though I’m afraid he thought economically it was the best move.

  4. Malaclypse says:

    CR graphs are, indeed, the bee’s knees, as the kids are wont to opine these days. But damn I miss Tanta.

  5. cpinva says:

    and this would be why they’re called “wingnuts”, as opposed to “rightwing intelligentsia”.

    First, the wingnut response, or in the words of one retweet I read, “The jobs numbers come out today, and either they prove Obama is a complete failure or that he cooked the books. Those are the only choices.”

    people give things names descriptive of those things. “junk bonds” for example, so called because, well, the risk was so high, they’re essentially junk. so it is with “rightwingnuts” because, well, they’re nuts.

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