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Because it’s 3:19 a.m. and my Facebook feed is already full of declarations of rank despair …

[ 50 ] November 6, 2012 |

… I’ll share this Facebook post someone whose opinion I trust mightily wrote last night:

Dear People Flipping Out,

I’ve mentioned this before, but about a decade ago I was in a sabermetric-oriented simulated baseball league with someone I’ll call “Sate Nilver.” I eventually quit that league because no one could defeat “Nilver,” because “Nilver” cared about nothing but being correct. His assiduous devotion to developing models that could defeat your models sapped all the fun out of simulating baseball games with a group of stats nerds. Now, sleep easy, because tomorrow he will “win” again.

I believe in the guy who believes in this guy like he was my son or possibly myself.

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Comments (50)

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  1. parrot says:

    most audacious move in chess … the opening move resignation gambit …

  2. Fred says:

    It would be helpful to actually go vote rather than just resorting to faith that everyone else is actually going to vote.

  3. Nilver had Obama’s chances at 86% last I checked. I feel ok.

  4. From BJ:

    So… final prediction time! Nate Silver at 538 calls it 315.2 for President Obama, 92% chance of winning.

  5. There’s nothing left to do but wait for the inevitable impeachment trial.

  6. Cody says:

    The guy who ruins your games is always the smartest one… for some reason. That’s why no one likes smart people!

    I think I understand Republicans finally.

  7. Not Nate Silver says:

    I am glad to see an acknowledgement that Silver’s good reputation is due to his record (which itself may be mathematically analyzed) of correct predictions, as opposed to chanting that his use of mathematical models cannot be approached by an anecdotal approach, without bothering to ask whether that mathematical approach is valid by analyzing its outcomes (which can involve using anecdotes as treating them as a form of data).
    2. I would point out that a true nerd would sneer at this as mere anecdote. Why does this status update not include a real mathematical analysis of Silver’s actual record in fantasy baseball instead of these impressions?
    3. A truly true nerd would sneer at your reference to baseball. “Sports are suboptimal. What is this entertainment in the context of living in human society that you speak of? It perplexes me. Of course, I post absurdly stupid and derivate memes online, but that is different because it just is that’s why!”

    • SEK says:

      First, a true nerd would point out that you had no “1.”

      Second, a true nerd would point out that sabermetrics is a valid means of evaluating human performance, perhaps even one of the best, given the historical and current data-sets available.

      Third, if you think all I post are “memes” you haven’t read 99 percent of what I’ve written, and if you think making fun of me for posting about popular culture is an insult, well, you haven’t read 99 percent of the comments I’ve written on the posts I’ve written.

      So basically, fourth, you’re just a drive-by asshole. Everyone else here knows that I write things that can be proven correct or vilely otherwise, and that when people investigate my claims, there tends not to be much in the way of vileness or otherwise.

  8. actor212 says:

    To periphrase a meme about Obama that passed around a few years ago…

    “He got this.”

  9. parrot says:

    i’ve concluded flipflop Rmoney is actually leonard zelig … the onion confirms my dot connecting …

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