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[ 71 ] October 31, 2012 |

Reassuring to know that Dick Morris thinks there will be a Romney landslide. -(Dick Morris) works about as well as the most sophisticated model.


Comments (71)

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  1. Warren Terra says:

    I just hope there’s never a binary prediction of importance and political relevance on which Morris and Kristol differ. I’m not sure the universe would survive.

  2. Otto von Bisquick says:

    If, for example, this particular weather forecasting model predicted a 75 percent chance of rain…

    Unfortunately I’ve heard the weather forecasters (yes, plural) in Nashville TN say “The chance of rain tomorrow is 75% which means 75% of Nashville will see rain.”

    • Warren Terra says:

      No, no, it means 75% of Nashvilleans will see rain.

      Can’t you just imagine: a busy street scene in which 3/4 of the people are getting rained on and the other 1/4 aren’t?

    • Scott P. says:

      That is in fact how the chance of rain is determined, if a model predicts that 30% of the area will get rain, that translates to a 30% chance of rain.

    • Otto von Bisquick says:

      From the NOAA website:

      Probability of Precipitation = C x A where “C” = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where “A” = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

      They say the correct way to interpret “A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms” would be that there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area.

      …and my original comment was supposed to be posted in the “Math Class is Tough”. What the hell does this have to do with Dick Morris?

  3. No crazier than Dean “Unskewed” Chambers’s prediction, which has Romney winning Oregon, among other improbables.

  4. bob mcmanus says:

    Listen well to Dick Morris and Brooks dissing Silver and the rest. They know what you don’t.

    They’re gonna steal it.

    • Joseph Slater says:

      Just like 2008!

      • Scott Lemieux says:

        I’m still outraged by Clinton v. Dole.

      • bob mcmanus says:

        No. Like 2004. In Ohio. (+ Va)

        And on Wednesday Silver and the gang here will be pouring over the exit polls, trying to count the old white people to hate. Cause no one will want an honest fight.

        • Joseph Slater says:

          I live in Ohio. I worked for Kerry. I was crushingly disappointed when Ohio went for Bush. I don’t think there’s any good evidence Ohio was “stolen” then. It sure wasn’t in 2008, and it won’t be in 2012.

      • njorl says:

        Stealing the 2008 election and stealing the 2012 election present vastly different challenges. I think making predictions of electoral fraud is silly, but dismissing the possibility of fraud because it didn’t happen last time is also silly.

        Boiling the problem down to the necessary efforts, the potential rewards and the potential repercussions, meaningful electoral fraud is a small but real possibility in 2012.

    • John says:

      Yeah, they’d definitely let David Brooks in on that one.

      • John says:

        Because if you’re Republican agents planning a secret conspiracy to use voting machines and whatever else to steal an election, one of the first people you’d want to inform is David Brooks. The potential that he’d give something away is far outweighed by the extraordinary value of his column kind of mildly criticizing Nate Silver.

  5. dan says:

    Somebody should find Morris’ projections from 4 years ago. As I recall, he had Obama winning Arizona and Georgia, among other states, and over 400 electoral votes.

    I’m not really sure at this point what Morris is doing, other than feeding his own insanity.

    • dan says:

      Found it —

      He really nailed it when he predicted Obama winning Tennessee. Much more trustworthy than Silver, obviously.

    • dan says:

      Found it —

      Much more reliable than Silver, who completely missed Obama’s victory in Tennessee….

    • Casey says:

      “I’m not really sure at this point what Morris is doing”

      That’s an easy one. When Obama wins by the skin of his teeth, he can start claiming (more in sorrow than in anger, etc etc) that the election was stolen by Democrats. If Even The Liberal Dick Morris says it should’ve been a landslide for Romney, then it musta been stolen, thanks to ACORN, the TIDES Foundation, George Soros and the Homosexual Lobby.

      I would calculate the odds of Dick Morris actually believing what he’s writing here at less than 1%. He’s a moron, but he’s more hustler than dumbass. It’s about creating a storyline so he can set himself up to write a shitty book about it in a year or two and sell it to a lot of wingnuts.

      Likewise, I would calculate the odds of Dick Morris actually believing his 2008 projection at about the same number. Thing is, it set him up to be the disgruntled more in sorrow than in anger former Obama supporter. And it worked!

    • wjts says:

      Here you go. As of October 16, 2008, Morris was predicting Obama would win (or probably win) Tennessee, Arizona, West Virgina, Arkansas, and Missouri. South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana were too close to call. Some serious political acumen on display there.

  6. DocAmazing says:

    Dick Morris can handle the math.
    When he runs out of fingers to count on, he’s got plenty of toes.

  7. Wido Incognitus says:

    You guys are heavily into defending Nate Silver. If that’s really your thing, then go for it. However, I get the picture. Math is good for you (although probably not Karl Rove’s “the math” forecasting Republican victories in the 2006 midterm elections).

    • Marc says:

      That’s an odd angle. Basically, the Republican attack on the people analyzing polls is a nice example of how the party has gone nuts. It isn’t that, say, Silver is wrong in his model. He’s a fraud – apparently largely because he’s telling them that their candidate is behind and they don’t want to hear it.

      This fits into a pattern on many other items. For me, it’s the primary reason why I very much want to see the national Republican party experience a defeat crushing enough to inspire a change in direction from the money side of the party. These people are just too detached from reality to be trusted with power and they are entirely too close to having absolute power.

    • Warren Terra says:

      We are into defending Nate Silver from certain lines of criticism. Nate could be way off, in any number of ways. But the accusations that are being made against him range from the silly/conspiratorial (he’s twisting the numbers!) to the missing-the-point (he’s using publicly available numbers!) to the vile (he’s effeminate!)

    • Hob says:

      Are you ever going to post a comment that actually says what you’re trying to say? I mean seriously, every single thing I’ve read from you so far on this blog has been along the lines of either “I don’t agree with [something no one said]” or “You guys are into [something people did say]… OK”, but with no clue as to what your own opinion is, if any. If this is trolling, it’s a weirdly passive variety.

      • Wido Incognitus says:

        It just seems like there have been enough posts about the value of statistical models (in the context of criticisms of Nate Silver) that people would get the picture. I think that my comments address issues that are present enough in or rRELATED enough to the substance of posts or other comments that they do not seem weirdly passive to me. If it really bothers you (which I am well aware that you did not say), then my commenting will more directly address the substance of the posts.

    • laura says:

      Math is good for everyone.

  8. JazzBumpa says:

    Wildly off topic, but I can’t get over the frisson of cognitive dissonance that rattles my brain when I see a donate to Romney button on this site.

    Seriously — WTF?!?

    • ChristianPinko says:

      I get a frisson of cognitive dissonance when those ads quote Romney as saying he’ll repeal Obamacare. Didn’t he change his stance on that issue too?

    • NonyNony says:

      I like to click those ads. I assume that drains a sliver of money from the Romney campaign into the LGM warchest.

      Normally I don’t do that with ads on sites I visit – I never click ads. But on my favorite blogs I click any Republican campaign ad I see.

    • Cody says:

      They pick the ads that show up.

      Yes, LG&M is getting paid by Romney. Does Romney know he’s paying them to basically mock him?

      I like to think so.

  9. patrick II says:

    Republicans want to steal Ohio. If they succeed, they want to make it seem the likely outcome so it won’t look quite so much like theft.

  10. Unfortunately, Bob Shrum just predicted an Obama victory, promised to grow a mustache.

    We’re doomed.

  11. The Frito Pundito says:

    I think that should read “Dick Morris works about models, particularly their toes.”

  12. Alan in SF says:

    -(Dick Morris) works about as well as the most sophisticated model.

    Beg to differ. Morris, being a whore and a wild card, has the “blind squirrel” exception in his favor. I’ll go with -(Jennifer Rubin).

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