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Election Prediction

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This is the time of the season where many if not most of us pore over the various state level election tracking sites available.  Electoral Vote was a big one in 2004, and remains my favorite for daily poll releases; 538 in 2008 and again now under the New York Times in 2012.  One I wasn’t familiar with, inexplicably, until yesterday is Princeton Election Consortium.  I’m assessing the distinctiveness of this one when I have time, which means I haven’t accomplished more than a superficial perusal.  Their current analysis is similar to Silver’s: there appears to be a slight erosion in support for Obama in national polls that is not replicated in state level polls.  The model itself seems far less sophisticated in terms of variables, but this is not necessarily a bad thing in a purely predictive exercise.

It’s worth a look.

h/t Jeffrey Dudas

UPDATE: link fixed.  I hope.

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