First, let's discuss the new Pew release, and attempt to do so without freaking out. It presents grim reading for at least two reasons: the four point Romney lead, and that Pew has had a consistent Democratic lean, relative to the aggregate averages, this entire...
methodology
This is the time of the season where many if not most of us pore over the various state level election tracking sites available. Electoral Vote was a big one.
Several days ago in these very pages, discussion ensued regarding the latest conservative attempt to rewrite reality through re-weighting polls to one guy's liking. Of course, polling is not an.
Silver has a new article up critiquing an over-reliance on economic models in predicting Presidential elections. While this is in general good work, I'm starting to note a trend in his narrative. To wit: "But I also got a few replies wondering how to reconcile...
Nate Silver writes an interesting piece about a minor debate surrounding the utility (or lack thereof) of favorable ratings for (largely potential in the case of 2012) presidential candidates this.
Perhaps. I was unaware of this trio prior to reading about them over at UK Polling Report, which is odd as I've been reading The Times' soccer (football) coverage for.
I usually find Nate Silver's stuff over at 538 (and especially at BP) careful and sound, if often atheoretical. On balance his foray into politics and political science in the blogosphere has been excellent, and we're all better off for it.However, this is problematic. Not...