Feingold: The Cold Strategic Water

Lindsay makes the case for Feingold in ’08. I remain very ambivalent about it. Not because I don’t like him; indeed, it seems very likely he will be by far my preferred choice on the merits among the major primary candidates. And given the inherent uncertainty of campaigns and how a candidate will perform, the merits deserve more weight than they’re sometimes given, at least given level of electability. On the other hand, having a Republican take the White House again would be far worse than not getting my first choice as the Dem candidate, so looking at his likelihood of winning is certainly important. But I have concerns that would need to be assuaged in a few areas:

• The Senate Factor. Granted that presidential campaigns have sample sizes too small to draw definitive conclusions, Senators running for president have a dismal track record, and I believe that this isn’t just random chance. Someone like Feingold, who casts a lot of eccentric principled votes, seems particularly vulnerable to having his long record demagogued and distorted effectively. All things being equal, a candidate from a state executive branch seems preferable.
• Not From A Red State. While it’s true that Wisconsin is a swing state in the sense that it’s generally in play, it’s a somewhat marginal one, being a fairly liberal upper midwest state carried by both Gore and Kerry. I’m not sure to what extent he would appeal to voters in the more conservative midwestern states or the western states where 2008 will be won or lost.
• Not Overwhelmingly Popular In His Home State. A related concern is that Feingold isn’t terribly popular even in his home state; his popularity ranking among Senators is 62nd, which seems pretty low for a viable national candidate. (Of further interest is that George Allen–the empty suit many people think the GOP will prop up in ’08–has similarly tepid ratings, while McCain is #1.)

None of these factors are definitive, of course, and everything is contingent on who the Republicans are running and, more importantly, who the other choices are. I would certainly take Feingold over Clinton; if we’re going to have a candidate widely perceived as a staunch liberal, they should at least be staunch liberals. But my first choice would be to hope that a governor or someone with another type of executive experience from a bluer state looks good; I would likely support Feingold only if such an alternative didn’t emerge, understanding that this would entail some compromise on the merits.