Couple of NFL football stats things

(1) Here’s another example of the insidious effects of the gambling culture.

Yesterday Cleveland is up 24-10 on the Raiders with 56 seconds to go. Cleveland has a fourth and two on the Raiders’ 29-yard-line. Cleveland’s braintrust decides that the Smart Play here is . . . to punt. This seems really bizarre. You’re talking a 46-yard FG attempt, which these days is something like an 80% to 85% chance of making it (it’s crazy how good kickers have gotten). Making the FG makes it a three-score game. Now if you’re worried about it getting blocked and run back for a TD that’s pretty paranoid, as only one in about 75 FG attempts are blocked, and maybe one in ten of those is run back for a TD, so that’s, uh, 750 to 1 against. But hey if you’re going to be paranoid like that, then just go for the first down! Punting is nonsensical, both because punts are blocked just about exactly as often as FG attempts, and are more likely to be returned for TDs when they are. Plus what does punting even get you? (In this case the answer is all of 19 yards of field position, i.e., basically nothing in comparison to going up three scores or making a game-ending first down).

Yeah on one level who cares, as the differential win probability here is probably something like 98.7% and 99.8% between the least optimal and most optimal decisions, but it’s still very weird to pick what is OBVIOUSLY the worst choice.

Which brings us to the Over/Under, which was . . . you guessed it ladies and gentlemen, 36.5! Really makes you think . . . Anyway there were tons of super outraged degenerate gamblers with the over out there and I can’t say I blame them.

(2) Giants have the ball at the Detroit six yard line, up 27-24, fourth down, three minutes to go. Do you kick the FG or go for the TD? Show your work.