The Negotiations

I don’t have any idea how negotiations between Putin and Trump are going to work out tomorrow, and I’m withholding judgment until we at least get a sense of the deliverables. Some general thoughts over at National Security Journal…

Given the breadth of the differences between Kyiv and Moscow, many worry that the talks will go nowhere.

Novices to diplomacy often assert that there is “no danger to talking,” but in fact, premature and poorly structured negotiations can push peace farther away rather than drawing it closer.

Diplomats are not necessarily peacemakers; they are servants of the national interest, and if peace is not in the interest of the nation, then it cannot be imposed.

Negotiators can “pocket” concessions made in advance, using them as opportunities to shift the playing field rather than a genuine effort to find common ground. Moreover, negotiations conducted under pressure can lead to “insincere” diplomatic engagement that can extend conflicts as readily as end them.

The Russian government has slow-walked negotiations over the course of the year, attempting to demonstrate reasonableness to the international community while continuing to bombard Ukraine.

When Ukraine agreed to a set of conditions imposed by the Trump administration, Russia responded by reiterating its demands rather than relaxing them.

The Trump administration has tried to change Russian calculations by imposing new sanctions and restoring military support for Ukraine, but the sincerity of Russia’s negotiating position remains in doubt.

I will say that the limits on Ukraine’s ability to continue the fight are becoming more visible with every passing day. The Zelensky government will need to make some very difficult choices over the next few weeks.