Lawless hack judges in broader DC area give Republicans a significant (but not insurmountable) advantage in 2026 House midterms
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The decision of the Virginia Supreme Court to nullify the results of a procedurally unobjectionable initiative, combined with the Supreme Court of the United States replacing the Voting Rights Act of 1965 with the Republicans are. Entitled to Govern Even if Voters Prefer Democrats Act of 2026 by fiat has had the intended effect of giving Republicans a huge thumb on the scale:
The redistricting wars heading into the November midterm elections had been in a stalemate, with each party’s tit-for-tat gerrymanders roughly canceling each other out.
It’s not a stalemate anymore. Over just the last two weeks, new court rulings and new congressional maps have put Republicans on track to add more than a dozen districts that voted for President Trump. It would be enough for Republicans to obtain a significant structural advantage in the House of Representatives, giving them a much better chance to at least stay competitive even if they lost the combined national vote by a wide margin in the midterms.
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With Mr. Trump’s approval rating stuck below 40 percent and Democrats building a growing polling lead in the race for Congress, even a dozen new Trump districts might not be enough for Republicans to retain the House. But while Democrats remain favored, retaking the House is no longer a foregone conclusion. The new maps make it much easier to imagine how the midterms could be a seat-by-seat battle for House control — one which Democrats could well be favored to win, but which would not feel like the sweeping “wave” election it might have been otherwise.
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But if everything stays as is — and with Alabama, South Carolina and Louisiana enacting new maps — Republicans will obtain a significant structural advantage. To win the House, Democrats could need to win the House combined national popular vote by around four percentage points, according to our estimates.
A four-point structural advantage wouldn’t be enough to make the Republicans favorites to win the House, but it gives them a real shot at it. In polling averages, Democrats lead by six points on the so-called generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they’ll support for Congress. But if Republicans make gains between now and November or pull off enough victories in key races, they could have a chance to retain control of the House even while losing the national vote by a significant margin.
That last point, however, is also important — Democrats remain the favorites. There is a certain faux-sophisticated reaction to outrageous Republican conduct that asserts that everything is futile now, we’re in a one party state, etc. etc. This isn’t true. Given Trump’s dismal approval ratings — and the fact that Republicans are relying on gerrymandering rather than trying to do anything to improve them — Democrats remain likely to both win the House amd to make gains in statehouses that can help to mitigate the damage before 2028:
The one-vote anti-democratic majority in Virginia is no more a permanent fact of life than the one on Wisconsin was, even if the replacement mechanisms are different. And Democratic public officials now seem to understand what the game is. Being clear-eyed about what Republicans are trying to do doesn’t mean preemptive quiescence, and indeed if you’re advocating that you’re on their team.