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A Better Peace

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I have doubts about the cease-fire:

Will the ceasefire stick?  

It is very difficult to say without a clear sense of the precise terms of the deal, and not even the President seems to have a firm grasp of what Iran and the United States have agreed to. 

While confusion can allow a certain degree of flexibility (allowing both sides to claim victory was probably the only way to get to a ceasefire), agreements typically oblige their parties to do things or stop doing things.

If Iran and the United States have no firm sense of agreement on what they should do or stop doing, then the ceasefire is inherently unstable. 

Still, the US appears committed to talks of some kind, and both Israel and the United States have (for the moment) stopped bombing Iran. However, Israel seems sketchy about the cease-fire (it continues to bomb Lebanon), and it does not seem likely that America’s Gulf allies will be satisfied with an outcome that leaves the Islamic Republic in control of the Strait of Hormuz. 

This is to say that spoilers exist and may find both the means and the opportunity to disrupt this peace.

War of choice that leaves you in a worse position when you started… somebody should do something about that.

Photo Credit: By Alexasinomas – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=130004807

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