The State of Texas Republicans
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The Times had a very useful conversation between Opinion Editor John Guida (who is responsible for publishing my 4 Times op-eds so obviously I’m a fan) and Texas Monthly contributing editor Christopher Hooks. The subject is whether Talarico can win. Maybe….but Texas is a very very red state still and as I stated a few months ago to some consternation, the chances are quite low. It’s worth noting here both to reiterate just what an uphill battle this and also to remind ourselves of the absolute sewer that is the Texas Republican Party.
First, the reality:
Christopher Hooks: I have to let some air out of the balloon right away: No, Talarico can’t turn Texas blue in the way you’ve been hearing it predicted for the last two decades. The dream national Democrats and some local ones have of “blue Texas” is about an emerging Democratic majority in the state that makes Texas a two-party state again.
We’re really far away from that, still. The Democratic candidate slate under the Senate race is anemic; the earliest the party can exercise meaningful control over the redistricting process is probably 2040.
Guida: 2040 is really far away — that will not be music to the ears of Democrats.
Hooks: At the same time, I do think Talarico has a narrow shot at winning this race. He needs a lot of factors to line up in his favor. Whatever skepticism the reader might be feeling is warranted here. National folks hear about a promising Democratic statewide candidate in Texas every two to four years and they never win, so it feels like nothing ever changes.
The thing to emphasize as somebody who covers this stuff is that Texas politics is actually in constant churn. The relationship between the two parties is constantly changing, and the Republican Party here is essentially an entirely different party than it was 12 years ago. Eventually things are going to line up in the right way, and the ground is going to shift.
Guida: The Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson (a contributing Times Opinion writer) wrote that for Democrats to win in Texas, they will need three things: “an exceptionally good political environment,” “a good Democrat” and “a bad Republican.” Does that sound about right, in terms of the factors you mentioned, and if so, how would you size up the three criteria?
Hooks: That’s right, and I think you could rank them. In a sense, the “good Democrat” is the least important part. The environment is probably the most important. When an unpopular Republican is in the White House, Texas Democrats can show real strength. In 2008, when President George W. Bush’s approval ratings were tanking, the party came within one seat of taking the state House. In President Trump’s first midterm, Beto O’Rourke came within three points of winning Ted Cruz’s Senate seat. What does this November look like if Trump’s approval rating is, say, 30 percent — if we’re at war, and oil and food prices are spiking?
Guida: What if Trump’s approval is roughly where it is now, hovering around 40 or low 40s percent?
Hooks: I’m not a numbers guy, but my guess is that it looks like the 2018 Senate race again. I think Texas Dems do need the president to get a little crazier.
Yep, Trump has to be significantly worse than he is now to even have a legit chance here. And it’s really bad! You know what makes it even worse? The fact that the Texas Republican Party is this outright evil and racist but Texas Republican voters are totally cool with it.
Our statewide elected officials often serve 12 or 16 years in office. But under the surface, the Republican Party is constantly remaking itself. And it’s remaking itself now in a way that, frankly, as a longtime observer, freaks me out. As recently as 2014, Texas Republicans were advocating a guest-worker program, compassion for immigrants, and for a general kind of traditional American pluralism in what was becoming a very diverse and complex state. That’s all gone. The governor can’t post a picture of a Diwali celebration without getting screamed at for weeks on social media by guys with really big hats.
Tarrant County is one of the most populous red counties in the country. The head of the G.O.P. there until recently was a man named Bo French, who advocates denaturalizing and deporting some 100 million Americans — especially Muslims and Indians. He once ran a Twitter poll to ask if Muslims or Jews were the bigger threat to America. He’s said he wants to deport Native Americans. He tweeted once that in America, we’re “all Rhodesians now.” Bo French ran for a statewide office, a seat on the Railroad Commission, and he’s in the runoff now. What French is saying is what a lot of younger Texas conservatives are saying.
On a national level, the fact that young Republicans are the worst racist pieces of shit imaginable alienates all the other young people. And young people as a whole really hate the Republican Party. But in Texas? Does it matter? But what are you going to do? It’s not like Democrats are going to compete in Kentucky. It’s a grim, hard world out there.