Realism. Restraint.
By 
The table is set for another war with Iran.
President Trump sharply intensified his threats against Iran on Wednesday, suggesting that if it did not agree to a set of demands the administration had made of the country’s leaders, he could soon mount an attack “with speed and violence.”
Mr. Trump’s threat of a second direct attack on Iran by U.S. forces in eight months came as the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, along with other naval ships, bombers and fighter jets, took up positions in the region in striking distance of the country. Mr. Trump explicitly compared the buildup to the forces he amassed near Venezuela late last year, just ahead of the operation that seized Nicolás Maduro and his wife in the middle of the night early in January.
Mr. Trump gave no specifics about the deal he was demanding, saying only that a “massive Armada” was heading toward Iran and that the country should make a deal. But U.S. and European officials say that in talks, they have put three demands in front of the Iranians: a permanent end to all enrichment of uranium and disposal of its current stockpiles, limits on the range and number of their ballistic missiles, and an end to all support for proxy groups in the Middle East, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis operating in Yemen.
The order (such that it was) imposed by the Twelve Day War could only be held together by the force of American arms. If Iran is forced to kowtow again (presumably making promises to Trump before or after any airstrikes) it will only be the force of American arms that will ensure any ensuing order. This is to say that Trump has reaffirmed the necessity of a US military presence in the Middle East for the foreseeable future… which is only surprising to the idiots who bought and sold garbage takes about Trump being a Restrainer.
I doubt that Trump is bluffing. He’s still riding the high of the Maduro raid (evidently he even talked it up to Tim Walz on their phone call last week), and he was clearly frustrated by the outcome of the Greenland debacle. The Gulf monarchies and even Israel are reportedly more than a bit sketchy about another war, but I doubt that will deter Trump. The only way to avoid war is pre-emptive Iranian compliance, and even that might not be enough; Trump has a taste for it now and would rather blast Iran into submission than get it voluntarily. I suspect that there will be war and that the Iranians will eventually agree to some set of measures that will limit the most visible parts of their nuclear program… while simultaneously ensuring a long-term commitment to acquiring nuclear weapons.