NFL Open Thread: Conference Championship and the Beav edition

Before we get to today’s games, LOL:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have pulled a stunner, concluding their head coaching search by hiring former Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, per multiple reports.

McCarthy had been lingering as a top prospective candidate for Pittsburgh since Mike Tomlin stepped down early last week, though there were some questions about whether or not he was truly in the running to fill the team’s vacancy.

Now, the Pittsburgh native with ties to Aaron Rodgers and 174 regular season wins to his name as well as a Super Bowl title in 2010 over the Steelers will have the chance to oversee his hometown team in a move that goes against the organization’s prior hiring practices.

One of the main arguments against McCarthy being deserving of a third head coaching opportunity is the fact that he continuously came up short in the playoffs throughout his career outside of capturing his lone Lombardi Trophy vs. Pittsburgh.

Despite the fact that he had one of the more talented quarterbacks in league history in Rodgers on his side for over a decade and parlayed it into a single Super Bowl appearance is rather hard to believe.

McCarthy didn’t fare much better in that regard during his four-year stint with the Cowboys, as he won just a single postseason contest with them despite going 12-5 each season from 2021 to 2023 and carrying one of the league’s most talented rosters over that span.

Tomlin was known for getting the most out of his players, evidenced by the fact that he never had a losing campaign during his 19 years with Pittsburgh, and the team was consistently in the mix regardless of the talent level on the roster.

McCarthy simply doesn’t have that same reputation, and there’s a good amount of risk associated with bringing him in despite his vast experience.

I assume the Steelers are thinking that McCarthy is the QUARTERBACK WHISPERER who get get Rodgers to stay another year and then develop his successor. This will work if Rodgers ages backward by 12 years or if they have a plan to acquire Dak Prescott. Otherwise, they might as well have hired Adam Gase. But, hey, on conference championship weekend let us honor the MVP of the 2014 NFC game!

Patriots (-3.5) at Broncos Evidently, this game lost some of its lustre when Bo Nix was injured, leaving Denver starting one of the league’s weakest backups, This line has shifted 2 points in favor of Denver this week, and based on multiple handicapping principles and some mitigating factors it makes sense. First-time backup starters tend to be underpriced. Home underdogs have a great track record of covering in conference title games. On paper, Stidham looks noncompetitive, but one of the best coaches in the league has thought enough of him to keep him around for three seasons, and he will have a kitchen sink game plan this week. If you wanted to take the points, especially since Maye has not played up to his MVP level so far in the playoffs, you have a lot of factors on your side.

But if I were betting it, I just couldn’t. The record on backup QBs in the playoffs this century is abysmal, and the major exception had played very well as a starter for Chip Kelly before backing up Wentz. (The biggest exception of the previous century, Doug Williams, took what had been an historically bad expansion franchise to the conference finals in its fourth season before his surprise Super Bowl win with the [redacted]). Stidham has a lot more in common with the Connors Cook and Ryans Lindley who have died the death of a dog than Foles. Sure Denver could grind out a cover or even a win if their defense can generate enough sacks and turnovers, but the QB is just too large for me to pick them.

Rams and Seahawks (-2.5) One of the best NFL playoff games ever in terms of mutual team quality. They’ve already played twice and I don’t have to tell you about either of them. The line is fair, balancing off the Seahawks being the better team this year playing at home versus Stafford’s unique history of success against Mike Macdonald defenses and Sam Darnold being Sam Darnold until proven otherwise. In what is surely bad news for Seahawks fans my gut says that Macdonald will be able to figure out enough of a counter-move against Stafford after two pretty shaky wins for the Rams. But if you took a look at the starting QBs and had to pick LA, I’m not going to argue with you. Either way this should be a great penultimate game.