Somehow, the Iranian Nuclear Program Came Back
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Weird how an unstable cease-fire created by US force of arms requires the force of US arms for maintenance:
President Donald Trump said Monday that he would back an Israeli attack on Iran if it rebuilds its nuclear capabilities, vowing that “we will knock the hell out of them.”
Ahead of a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Palm Beach estate, Trump said he heard Iran is trying to grow its ballistic missiles program.
“Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again. And if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down,” he said alongside Netanyahu. “We’ll knock the hell out of them, but hopefully that’s not happening.”
The president added that he heard Iran wants to make a deal, but said he supports an Israeli attack if either ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons programs continue.
“If they will continue with the missiles, yes. The nuclear, fast,” Trump said.
Iran is likely prioritizing ballistic missile production due to both organizational inertia within the Iranian defense apparatus and the need to restore deterrence in what it views as an ongoing war with Israel. The reconstitution appears to be an effort to restore deterrence against Israeli attack, though a reconstituted ballistic missile program could be used to attack Israel. One former senior Iranian official has doubled down on investment in the ballistic missile program after the Israel-Iran War to “restore deterrence,” while a current senior official advocated for new technical improvements to the missiles, for example.[1] These officials probably calculate that more and higher-quality missiles are needed to penetrate Israeli defenses, given the effectiveness of Israeli ballistic missile interceptors and the decreasing Israeli interceptor stockpile. The reconstitution of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities is nonetheless increasing anxiety in Israel over the quantity of missiles Iran now possesses (see below).
Take the source with a grain of salt but JEEBUS Iran is OBVIOUSLY building out its missile program in the immediate wake of a war in which the only weapon that it wielded with any effectiveness was ballistic missiles.
Unlike a lot of folks here I actually believe that Trump dislikes war, in large part because he does not understand why anyone would risk death for anything other than money. But that lack of understanding, combined with an utter incuriosity as the motives of others (if you don’t understand why men and women are willing to fight and die for ideas then you’re not going to understand how to make peace), renders him almost uniquely incapable of handling the diplomacy of war and peace. Add to this his need to feel strong and his inability to judge any of his henchmen on any metric other than loyalty, and you have the recipe for a uniquely bad President on questions of war and peace.
All of which should have been obvious in early November 2024. Yet some people are paid to be stupid, and others are happy to perform stupid for free.