College Football Week 13 Thread

Last week, we saw Indiana come from behind to have a last second win over Penn State and Oregon come from behind for a last second win over Iowa. What I found interesting–and frustrating–is that the media thought this was a great win for Indiana, even though it is not saying that Oregon going into a white out in State College and crushing the life out of Penn State to the point that the players gave up on the team is not a good win. Meanwhile, Oregon’s win in terrible conditions with its top 4 receivers all hurt (they are down to 4 scholarship receivers available to play) against an extremely tough Iowa team led them to be dropped over an Ole Miss team that hasn’t beat anyone either and beat The Citadel last week. Well, college football rankings are talking points are always ridiculous, which is why the 12 team playoff makes sense. Settle it on the field if you can get there. And if you can’t get to the top 12, well, the narratives weren’t that important for you anyway.

This week’s top 10 games, based on the Athletic’s rankings of teams from 1-136, in order of the time the game starts.

1. #36 Minnesota at #8 Oregon (-25.5), Fri, 9, ESPN. I hate this line. I also hate saying that Oregon is favored by too much. But this spread is nonsense. The reason is not that Oregon is a better team–Oregon is a far better team than Minnesota, who has beaten only bad teams and has been blown out by every good team they’ve faced. No, the reason it makes no sense is that Oregon has almost no available receivers and so will probably run the ball 45 times and the game will be 20-3 or something like that. This won’t be a close game for anyone who watches it, but I’d be surprised if Oregon can have the explosive offense it would take to win by 4 touchdowns. So while I would never do this in real life, I’d take Minnesota +25.5 here. We’ll know by the time this post goes live! (Sat update: Delightfully happy to be wrong! Ducks 42-13.)
2. #10 Notre Dame at #23 Pitt (+11.5), 12, ABC. This could be a fun game. Notre Dame has played great since its disastrous start. But then Pitt has played great too. Their five game winning streak isn’t against the most impressive opponents, though they did help Florida State back to its usual place of irrelevance after it beat Alabama. Both teams have a lot to play for here. Given that the game is at Pitt and will be the biggest game there in years (ESPN will be there for Gameday), I think this is at least a pretty close game and will take Pitt +11.5
3. #41 Arizona at #21 Cincinnati (-6.5), 12, FS1. Cincy just got squashed by a rising Utah team. They aren’t as good as the Utes, but no shame in that. Arizona is super up and down, 6-3, but they nearly lost to Kansas last week. I think Cincy is the better team and at home will win by at least a TD.
4. #12 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama (-6.5), 3:30, ABC. The thing about Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC is that someone has to lose the games. Last year, it was Oklahoma. This year it’s decent Auburn and Florida teams who just can’t hang with the competition and even Tennessee and Missouri teams that are more than decent but just aren’t quite good enough. So this is a really good matchup. Alabama has looked so good ever since its weird opening loss. Oklahoma has been a mixed bag in the last month. No great shame losing to Ole Miss and Tennessee isn’t a bad enough team to be worried about only winning by 6, but against this hot looking Bama team in Tuscaloosa, I think a TD for Bama is quite reasonable.
5. #26 Iowa at #17 USC (-6.5), 3:30, Big Ten. USC gets better and better. Iowa is the team it always is–great offensive line, tough as nails defense, absolutely trash QB. I suspect Oregon just ripped the heart out of them last week and going out to LA is a long trip and it seems to me like the kind of game that Iowa just doesn’t have the energy to keep up with, despite their real toughness. Anyway, I like USC by a TD.
6. #46 North Carolina State at #9 Miami (-14.5), ESPN. You never know when Mario Cristobal will blow another game. It might well be against a decent but not great Wolfpack team! Plus, NC State just upset Georgia Tech, so they are playing with a lot of confidence. This game could go any number of ways, from total Miami blowout to NC State upset. I do think this line is a bit large given Miami’s recent mehness and Mario being an idiot chud and given NC State pulling the big upset last week. So I think I would take the Wolfpack within 2 TDs at least.
7. #16 Utah at #42 Baylor (+8.5), 7, ESPN2. Utah is kicking ass right now. I know that a TD plus spread on the road at a decent Baylor team is a lot. I think it respects just how well Utah is playing. And I think will continue to play. Would not want to face the Utes right now. I’ll take them with the points.
8. #11 Texas at #5 Georgia (-6.5), 7:30, ABC. Arch Manning might be learning how to play football, which has certainly helped Texas in the last few weeks after the rest of the team covered for his badness for so long. Still, Texas in the last three games has beaten Kentucky by 3, Mississippi State by 7, and a good Vanderbilt team by 3 at home. Does that sound like the kind of line that makes you think they can go into Athens and come close to winning? I’m skeptical and take Georgia by a TD.
9. #44 Mississippi State at #27 Missouri (-7.5), 7:45, SEC. This is the kind of game it can be hard to care about–these are pretty good teams but within the SEC hierarchy are not actually that interesting. But in the end, Mississippi State is 1-5 in the SEC and Missouri may have 3 losses, but they are all to really good and highly ranked teams and only one was by more than a TD. Admittedly, that was last week against Texas A&M and that’s two losses in a row. But Missouri will also be playing for pride and I think they will take this pretty easily by at least 8.
10. #40 TCU at #13 BYU (-4.5), 10:15, ESPN. How does BYU respond after being handled pretty easily by Texas Tech. The oddsmakers are clearly a little skeptical since this is a tight spread at home against a good but certainly not great Horned Frogs team. That’s fair, but it’s worth noting that TCU just lost to Iowa State after barely defeating West Virginia. BYU has its share of close wins too, but they actually win them and one of them is Utah. So let’s not overreact to one loss here. BYU wins this by at least a TD.

6-4 last week, 57-57 on the season. Flip that coin!