Week 5 College Football Thread

We are now in the heart of the season and that means lots of great conference games and very few laughers! Clemson continues to fail to the laughter of everyone who doesn’t love John C. Calhoun University (literally built on his plantation). Oklahoma State finally got rid of Mike Gundy, who will have more time to watch OANN and talk about being a man. Indiana showed up BIG TIME. The Ducks put the Beavers in their little brother place, thus order remains in the universe.

Here’s my top 10 games of the week based on the Athletic’s ranking of every FBS team, in order of the time they start.

1. #17 TCU at #28 Arizona State (-3.5), 9, FOX, Friday. Writing this before the game though it will be published after–I like what Kenny Dillingham continues to build in Tempe. But I wasn’t super inspired by having to fight like dogs to get by Baylor last week while TCU continues to look excellent in most phases. So taking TCU here as I think they the better team and you get some points too. (Sat update: ASU 27, TCU 24, so within the margin for the Horned Frogs. 1-0 for me!)
2. #24 USC at #30 Illinois (+6.5), 12, FOX. OK, well, Illinois was smashed like a bug against Indiana. Hell of a performance by the Hoosiers. But we know Illinois is not a bad team. USC looked fine at home against Michigan State, but not dominant. I remain highly convinced that USC has improved much. A win very early in the day against an Illinois team that will be playing for pride and their season would be a big pull for the Trojans. I think I like the Illini to pull themselves together, enough to win outright but I definitely like them +6.5
3. #4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss (-1.5), 3:30, ABC. Not sure I get this line. Ole Miss is a good team. Lane Kiffin is a hell of a coach, weirdo as he may be. But LSU is a very fine team and the Rebels are still starting their backup QB, who is pretty good! But I don’t see this as not a win for LSU and you even get a point on it.
4. #21 Auburn at #7 Texas A&M (-6.5), 3:30, ESPN. I don’t begrudge Auburn much for losing to Oklahoma in a tight game. Meanwhile, A&M had a hell of a win against Notre Dame, but their defense seems to be highly questionable and at some point it is going to bite them. Maybe this is the week, maybe it’s not, but I will take Auburn +6.5 here.
5. #12 Indiana at #34 Iowa (+7.5), 3:30, Peacock. OK Indiana you made a believer out of me. My God, what a performance last week. Iowa isn’t a bad team but they haven’t shown they are in Indiana’s class. Curt Cignetti is some kind of coaching god. So yeah, I take Indiana even with 7.5 on the road against a decent opponent. Haven’t seem much evidence from the last couple of years that the Hoosiers are the kind of team likely to have a let down. Which probably means they will.
6. #1 Ohio State at #39 Washington (+7.5), 3:30, CBS. Washington has flown totally under the radar so far and they haven’t really played anyone (it’s a very weak nonconference slate, even granting that it’s good they are keeping the Apple Cup alive against Washington State.). So they could be good? But they are not going to come within a TD of Ohio State. No way.
7. #20 Tennessee at #27 Mississippi State (+7.5), 4:15, SEC. That was a brutal loss for the Vols against Georgia, but they are probably still a good team. Mississippi State remains a bit unknown. Their win over Arizona State is pretty nice and their offense is good. But then Tennessee has a nice defense, even if Georgia carved it up by the pass a bit. So it’s an interesting line. Tennessee is probably a better team. But the Bulldogs aren’t slouches. Tennessee really needs this too because the schedule is about to get brutal (if the SEC wants all the elite teams, well, someone has to lose those games). So I will go MSU +7.5. Probably think Tennessee will win, but by less than a TD.
8. #42 Arizona at #14 Iowa State (-6.5), 7, ESPN. Interesting game, potentially. Arizona beat Kansas State last week, but the Wildcats are there with Clemson and Florida as the biggest disappointments of the year. Iowa State is undefeated, but just barely. After just getting by Iowa, which OK fair enough, they did all they could to lose to Arkansas State last week. Their three wins against FBS teams are by a total of 14 points. There’s another issue with this line, which is that neither team scores much, so it’s going to be close almost by definition. Because of that, I am going Arizona losing by less than a TD.
9. #9 Oregon at #10 Penn State (-3.5), 7:30, NBC. First, I have no problem with these two teams, including my Ducks, being ranked lower than the AP poll. Why? Because neither team has played anyone good yet. However, are two paths to not playing anyone good. Oregon has beaten Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, and Oregon State. That means your FCS easy win (though MSU was in the title game last year), a Power 5 foe that looked to be a marquee game before the program fell apart, a conference game on the road, and your rival in a series you are salvaging after the conference blew up. Easy schedule, but you can see it. Penn State? They’ve played Nevada, Florida International, and Villanova. Now that’s an embarrassing schedule. Villanova and Montana State counter each other, but that is your non-conference schedule? And Penn State QB Drew Allar has looked terrible against those teams! His QBR ranks 104th in the nation!!! I am not per se saying my Ducks go into State College and win in a White Out game. It’s a tough environment. And I am a bit concerned about their run defense. But I do think they are a better team than Penn State, so I will take them +3.5 and probably would even if I didn’t want them to beat the Child Rapists.
10. #19 Alabama at #5 Georgia (-3.5), 7:30, ABC. Is Alabama good? Who knows. They beat Wisconsin, but the Badgers are the worst they’ve been in decades. Also, Florida State really looks great, so that loss seems less problematic. However, there’s still pretty good reason to be skeptical about Bama. Georgia had an epic win at Tennessee last week and it’s hard to keep up that energy week after week. But I believe Georgia can do it so I take them with the points. These are not even teams on an even field, which is what a line like that suggests.

I was 6-4 last week against the spread, making me a mediocre but not disastrous 22-22 on the season.