The Turn…
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I try to make sense of Trump’s turn on Ukraine, which doesn’t of course make any goddamn sense…
From the perspective of January 2025, the rhetorical shift was stunning. Since he re-assumed the Presidency, Trump has argued that the Russia-Ukraine War needs to end and has harped on Ukraine’s vulnerability.
During the now-infamous press conference with President Zelenskyy, Trump repeatedly claimed “You don’t have the cards,” as part of an effort to browbeat the Ukrainian leader into accepting peace terms.
Now, Trump appears to have contradicted himself. Trump’s decision to highlight the weakness of the Russian economy and to speak well of Ukraine’s chances to regain lost territory also directly contradicts the statements of his Vice President. J.D. Vance has long argued that Ukraine is doomed to suffer defeat due to fundamental material imbalances between Kyiv and Moscow.
It remains to be seen whether Vance will adjust his rhetoric to bring it more into line with the President.
Trump seems to have finally come to the conclusion, after months of evidence, that Ukraine and President Zelensky are not the primary obstacles to ending the war. Trump has been frustrated by Moscow’s intransigence, rather than Kyiv’s.
More:
Other stuff:
- An alternative, overlapping interpretation of Trump’s statements…
- Continuing to monitor the situation near Pokrovsk
- Startup culture in the Ukrainian defense industrial base
- Corruption problems and disaggregated systems in the Ukrainian DIB