NFL Open Thread
By 
One of the most burning questions of the young NFL season is whether the Chiefs are just in a slump (exacerbated by injuries) or whether they’re in real decline:
I won’t make the mistake of writing off the Chiefs so soon. I won’t do that until they’re mathematically eliminated from the playoff race. A screenshot of this article is not ending up in a “Nobody Believed in Us” montage after they win another Super Bowl in February. But we can’t ignore the obvious: The offense, which had already been sputtering over the past two seasons, has broken down, and Mahomes has been left to push it down the field with little help. If Kansas City is going to turn things around in time for another championship run, that will obviously have to change—and in a hurry. The Chiefs play the 0-2 Giants on Sunday night, but over the following six games, they’ll see the Ravens, Lions, Commanders, and Bills, teams that combined to win 52 games last season. If Kansas City’s performances in those contests mirror what we’ve seen over the first two weeks of the season, it could get swept by that group. Since 1990, only 12 percent of teams that started 0-2 have made the playoffs, according to NFL.com. Only half of that 12 percent won their division, and just three of them went on to win the Super Bowl. I’d imagine that the numbers for teams that start 3-5 or 2-6 are even worse. If going down by 34-0 in the Super Bowl didn’t mark the end of the Chiefs dynasty, missing the playoffs this season will.
While this dumpster fire of an offense is the primary point of concern for the Chiefs right now, their defensive performance has also been troubling. Kansas City’s defense ranks in the bottom 10 in just about every relevant metric, including points allowed per drive, EPA, and success rate. The lack of a pass rush outside of what’s provided by Chris Jones, the load-bearing All-Pro defensive tackle who’s in his age-31 season, has been the root cause of their defensive problems, but the coverage unit isn’t helping matters. After watching Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert calmly pick apart the secondary from clean pockets in Week 1, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo cranked the blitz dial all the way up against the Eagles, sending extra pass rushers on 56 percent of Jalen Hurts’s dropbacks. The game plan reeked of desperation from the play caller, who didn’t trust his four-man rush to get after the passer quickly enough or his secondary to hold up in coverage. That strategy worked against the Philadelphia passing game, which is going through some shit early in the season, but it’s not a sustainable approach. It’s also not sustainable for Mahomes to account for 56.2 percent of the team’s rushing yards
The Chiefs’ main issue is a lack of high-end talent on both sides of the ball. They’ve had the best quarterback in the world for the past few seasons, which has helped paper over holes on the roster, but Mahomes is no longer producing like the NFL’s best quarterback—which isn’t his fault so much as it is head coach Andy Reid’s and general manager Brett Veach’s. Those two worked hand in hand to build the roster, and they were rightly celebrated for their role in the rise of Kansas City’s dynasty. But if the first two weeks of this season are any indication of how things will play out, they’ll also be responsible for its decline.
I think the Chiefs will be fine in the sense of “playoff team whose pedigree and QB make them dangerous,” but I think they’re distinctly below the level of Buffalo/Baltimore/Green Bay and I wouldn’t bet on them against the Lions either. As I said on the preview pod, I also think that we’re past the point at which Mahomes is “not producing like the league’s best QB” and are just at “Mahomes is no longer the best QB in the league.” Allen and Jackson don’t exactly have stellar receiving corps either, and the gap in production for 2+ seasons and counting is just too glaring to overlook at this point. That’s not to say that Mahomes can’t get back on top, but at this point he’s distinctly outside of the reasonable MVP conversation.
In other sports news, let me provide context. The Mariners — the only current MLB franchise never to appear in a World Series — has been owned by the Astros for a decade. A game ahead entering today, they had the chance to not only expand their lead but clinch the playoff tiebreaker, which would give them effectively a three game division lead with seven games to play. They got off to a 6-0 lead. Then they gave up a grand slam to the short left field porch. In the top of the ninth, Mariners star closer Andrés Muñoz was pitching in his third game in three days and visibly had nothing. The Astros had two on with one out. Then this happened:
Victor Robles robs Carlos Correa on a dead run with a diving catch and the Mariners win on the double play
[image or embed]— CJ Fogler (@cjzero.bsky.social) Sep 20, 2025 at 7:21 PM
If you live in this world you’re feelin’ the change of the guard.