As the thermostat turns

Now that they’re beginning to figure out that Trump means higher prices and chaos rather than a world where COVID never happened, the demographics that swing toward Trump in 2024 are starting to back away [gift link]:

After broadening the Republican coalition, Trump is at risk of shrinking it. Trump came close to winning young voters—those under age 30—in 2024, a sharp reversal from his 25-point loss among young voters in 2020. He also made gains among Black, Hispanic and other minority groups, losing by a far smaller margin than in 2020. And he improved his showing among seniors.

Now that he is back in the White House, these groups have grown increasingly unhappy with his job performance.

[…]

Trump’s improvement among young voters, those under age 30, was one of the noteworthy developments in the election. He lost among such voters by only 4 percentage points, a large survey of the electorate called AP VoteCast found. Now, disapproval outweighs approval by 10 points and even more than 20 points among young people.

Similarly, voters who are Black or Latino, and those from minority groups overall, give increasingly negative assessments of the president’s performance.

White voters account for at least 70% of the electorate, and Trump won them by 14 percentage points in 2024, AP VoteCast found. They initially held a positive view of Trump’s job performance. Now, some polls find his rating to be more negative than positive.

There’s no guarantee that this will continue, of course, but it’s entirely possible that some of the trends in 2024 will prove ephemeral, especially given the extent to which Republicans seem to be taking them for granted.