The Offer

So, if these are the terms I gotta say that I don’t hate them:

Telegraph and Axios have more.

1. “A robust security guarantee” involving an ad hoc group of European countries and potentially also like-minded non-European countries. The document is vague in terms of how this peacekeeping operation would function and does not mention any U.S. participation.
2. The return of the small part of Kharkiv oblast Russia has occupied.
3. Unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River, which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.
4. Compensation and assistance for rebuilding, though the document does not say where the funding will come from.

The mineral deal is ugly and unnecessary but it can also be undone by a future sane American President. What’s not here are prohibitions of security guarantees ( not US but quite likely Britain or France), demands for Ukrainian disarmament, and demands for Ukrainian political reform (denazification, for those in back).

I don’t know if the Russians will buy this but I think the Ukrainians should seriously contemplate it. So far they’re not; Zelensky is pursuing a 30 day unconditional ceasefire and the Europeans don’t seem interested in playing ball on sanctions. I’m not sure at this point there’s a better deal on the horizon, unless Paris-London-Berlin-Kyiv know something I don’t about Russia’s capacity to continue the war.

… Russia not making positive noises about this.

Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the war against Ukraine could end “immediately” if Ukrainian troops withdraw from four regions that Russia has included in its constitution.

Speaking in an interview with Le Point on April 23, Peskov reiterated Russia’s longstanding demands, stating, “We want to achieve our goals. Peacefully or militarily.”

According to Peskov, Russia sees Ukraine’s potential NATO membership as a direct threat to its security. As a result, Moscow insists that Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, which are currently under partial Russian control.