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“Not Great, Bob!”

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I’m not saying we’re prepping for war with Iran, but if we’re not it’s hard to tell the difference. B-2s!

In the latest show of force against Iran and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the United States has deployed at least six nuclear-capable B-2 bombers to a base in the Indian Ocean within striking distance of both countries, an ABC News analysis of satellite images shows.

The buildup of aircraft on the island of Diego Garcia – comprising at least one third of the Air Force’s stealth bombing fleet – accomplishes three tasks with one strategic move, increasing the United States’ military presence in the region, enabling continued strikes of targets in Yemen and sending a message to Iran, experts told ABC News.

Aircraft carriers!

The United States is increasing the number of aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East to two, keeping one that is already there and sending another from the Indo-Pacific, the Pentagon says.

The Harry S. Truman will be joined by the Carl Vinson “to continue promoting regional stability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in the region,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell says in a statement.

F-35s and Warthogs and Patriot batteries, oh my!

The U.S. military has deployed more of its most advanced fighter jets to the Middle East as it continues to strikeYemen’s Houthi rebels, an Iran-backed terrorist group attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, according to multiple congressional aides…

More than two weeks into the Trump administration’s intensified airstrike campaign in Yemen, Hegseth has rushed further military assets to U.S. Central Command. He’s extended the deployment of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea and announced the carrier Carl Vinson and its strike group would soon join it. The Pentagon has also sent multiple A-10 Warthogs to the region…

The Israelis are ready to go!

Taken together, these factors have left many Israelis wondering why the Netanyahu government has not taken advantage of this relatively appealing strategic environment. A recent poll revealed 68 percent of Israelis favored striking Iran after recent successes against Hizballah. Without backing from the United States, however, only 37 percent of Israelis support a strike. Israelis understand that their informal alliance with the United States is critical to their security in a neighborhood as dangerous as the Middle East.

Trump has been characteristically all over the place:

Trump seems to be against a military strike, at least for now. In his inauguration speech, he said that his legacy will be measured by the “wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” During Netanyahu’s Feb. 4 visit to the White House, Trump downplayed the urgency to strike Iran immediately, stating “There’s two ways of stopping them: with bombs or with a written piece of paper. I’d much rather do a deal that’s not going to hurt them.” Trump’s first term demonstrated he is willing to use force against Iran in a way his successor would not. Nonetheless, he remains optimistic about a negotiated outcome.

That was then, this is now:

Iran has reacted with outrage after Donald Trump said the country will be bombed if it does not accept US demands to constrain its nuclear programme.

The US president said on Sunday that if Iran “[doesn’t] make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”.

Trump’s latest threat – more explicit and violent than any made before – came after he sent a letter to Iran, as yet undisclosed, offering to hold talks on its nuclear programme. Iran had sent a reply to the US stating it was willing to hold indirect talks, officials confirmed.

I actually would be just a little bit surprised to see this happen. Trump 45 escalated US participation (and lethality towards civilians) in wars that the US was already engaged in, but he did seem trigger shy about starting major new conflicts. Blowing up Soleimani is one thing; hitting Iran with B-2 strikes is entirely another. But I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see us go over the top kinetic against Iran in the next couple of weeks. Even if the intention is just coercive diplomacy, it’s possible that Trump will find himself backed into a corner if the Iranians don’t comply. When you’ve decided to blow up the world economy, why not blow up some Iranians as well?

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