World War Three?
By 
As long-term readers will be aware, I occasionally submit a “where in the world will World War Three start?” upon the arrival of the New Year.
No one wants another global conflict, but in some ways we are already in a potential World War III. The Russia-Ukraine War, one of the largest conventional conflicts that the world has seen since World War II, has had far-reaching global effects. These have necessarily touched upon the parts of the world where Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States have interests, which in effect is the entire international system. None of the conflicts discussed here are separate from the others; just like the different theaters of WWII, they each have an effect on the balance of power and threat in the other regions.
To my mind we are already, in some sense, in something that could be described as “World War III.” Events in Ukraine are having an impact on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, even as conflict and competition in those areas rolls on according to their own logics. The Ukraine War and the attacks of 10/7 aren’t connected by any grand plan, but the manner in which the October 7 War has played out has definitely been affected by the course of the war in Ukraine, all the way down to the collapse of Syria last week. And if war were to break out in the next year or so in the Taiwan Straits or on the Korean Peninsula, I think we’d view the the Russia-Ukraine War in much the same light as the Sino-Japanese War of 1937; at the very least a precursor to global war, and in many ways an integral part of that conflict.
Other links:
- We don’t yet know if the Russians will be able to hold onto Tartus.
- Israel hitting Syrian government military assets hard in order to ensure that the successor government doesn’t use them… does not imply positive relations between Jerusalem and Damascus in the near future.
- What Russia got out of Assad.
- I will see Gladiator II even though Bret Devereaux hated it.
- South Korea still going through some stuff.
- Who doesn’t love a kamikaze drone?