Democrats Will Win In November

In November, Joe Biden will win a second term as president. Democrats will win the House of Representatives. The Senate will be very close, but I think a Democratic trifecta is possible.

It’s not all bad that so much of the coverage seems to point to a Donald Trump win or a close contest. That keeps us on our toes to prevent the worst from happening. But it’s time to do the other side.

Caveat: I recognize that there is a canonical hardcore 27% who will vote for Trump if he is dead and decaying before their eyes. I am not talking about them. There is a persuadable middle that makes the difference. I am talking about them.

Caveat: This is a vibes-based prediction. Everyone’s predictions at this point are vibe-based. The difference is that I am honest about that.

Polls are not reliable eight months before the election. A meme making the rounds reminds us that Michael Dukakis had a 10-point lead over George H. W. Bush at this point. Most people, as Paul keeps telling us, are barely aware that there will be an election this year. Fewer are aware that Biden and Donald Trump will be the presidential candidates.

Polls have underpredicted Democratic strength and overpredicted Trump strength over the past couple of years. None of the pollsters has publicly addressed this bias, to my knowledge. I think assuming that the polls are tilted toward Republicans is reasonable.

The Republican Party is weak. Heather Cox Richardson, historian of political parties, says it looks to her like other collapses of political parties.

Behind the horse race–type coverage of the contest for presidential nominations, a major realignment is underway in United States politics. The Republican Party is dying as Trump and his supporters take it over, but there is a larger story behind that crash. This moment looks much like the other times in our history when a formerly stable two-party system has fallen apart and Americans reevaluated what they want out of their government.

While Trump attempts to put his daughter-in-law into the Republican leadership, sstate Republican parties are running out of money. Trump is likely to try to get the Party to pay for his legal expenses. All that sets up potential infighting, along with various issues peculiar to individual states, like an ongoing fight in Michigan. In contrast, the Democrats are bringing in money, and Joe Biden is not spending his time in court.

Nikki Haley is not giving up her campaign, and, while Trump is winning most primaries, around 40% of Republican voters are willing to vote for a not-Trump.

I maintain that the reaction to Dobbs, primarily among women but far from absent in men, accounts for most of the error in the polls. Tthe fallout from Dobbs will continue through the summer. Women with horrendous complications of pregnancy will be denied treatment. A Supreme Court decision on the availability of mifepristone will be handed down this summer. And a great many people are angry enough that they don’t need to be reminded.

The incoherence of the Dobbs decision and the forced-pregnancy legislation in various states is splitting Republicans. The insistence on fetal personhood put forth by the Alabama Supreme Courtcannot be reconciled with the use of IVF for people who want children but are having difficulties with the basic route.

Trump is losing his court cases. There is much more to come in this area.

Kevin Drum also thinks Biden will win. He’s coming at it a little differently, but I don’t disagree.

• Right now the race is basically a tossup.
• But it’s still very early. The vast majority of swing voters aren’t paying attention yet—and won’t until after the conventions.
• As voter attention shifts to the campaign it will hurt Trump. Historically, the more people hear from Trump, the less they like him.
• Trump has a lower ceiling than Biden. There are just too many people who flatly won’t vote for him. Biden has more upside.
• Many of the people who say they won’t vote for Biden will come around later in the year. As always, the prospect of a Republican winning—especially Trump—will overcome their early doubts.
• Biden hasn’t even begun to campaign yet. He has a lot of money, and when the ads start running they’ll hurt Trump a lot.
• Biden has an obvious problem with his physical condition, which reads as old. But his mental condition is fine. Trump, by contrast, shows signs of serious mental deterioration. This hasn’t gotten a lot of attention yet, but it will.
• Trump has a big potential downside from all his trials. His MAGA fans might not care, but centrist voters do, and it could spell big problems if prosecutors are getting headlines for Trump’s misdeeds when October rolls around.

Another person to follow is Simon Rosenberg.