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Russia-Ukraine Update

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The war has settled down considerably from the slugfest that dominated the six weeks or so from the beginning of June. Russian shelling has dropped off considerably (as have Ukrainian casualties) either because of an “operational pause” or because of the impact of HIMARS strikes on the Russian logistical system. The looming issue is Kherson, where a Ukrainian offensive is heavily over-determined. Kherson is a geographic chokepoint for the Ukrainian economy and it’s also hard to defend given the Russian dependence on bridges that Ukraine can destroy. Not an exaggeration to say that a ton depends on Ukraine’s ability to demonstrate in can retake critical territory.

Some links:

And some more thoughts on how we think about the decisiveness of particular technologies:

Long story short, the impact of technology on the battlefield is complex and hard to measure. The impact of every weapon system is necessarily limited by the learning process that its deployment provokes on the other side.

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