I am pretty agnostic over the question of whether Biden should be the nominee in 2024. I tend to think not, but then I also don’t know what process would realistically would get rid of him in the modern political context. Of course, I also didn’t want him in 2020. I should also say that my interest in polling is very low–it’s almost always worthless if what you are doing is figuring out who is likely to win an election. We’ve seen in 2016 and again in 2020 just how broken polling is. However, this recent UNH poll of New Hampshire Democrats is kind of remarkable.
The University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center Granite Poll found that 17 percent of likely 2024 Democratic primary voters in the state would choose Buttigieg among a list of Democrats, or those who caucus with Democrats, who are considered possible 2024 presidential contenders. Biden received 16 percent support, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who each came in at 10 percent. A handful of other Democrats, in addition Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), received less than 10 percent.
The margin of error for among the Democrats polled specifically is plus or minus 4.7 points, meaning Buttgieg and Biden are statistically tied among voters.
I mean….that’s terrible. That’s just a zero in terms of people believing in this person. It’s been since at least Carter–and maybe far longer–that we’ve seen any party’s president provide so little enthusiasm among party voters. Again, I don’t have strong opinions about what to do here and it’s quite clear that there’s nothing like a boomlet for any single alternative candidate. And I am sure almost all of these Democrats would vote for Biden against any Republican. But this seems like a pretty big problem!