Russia-Ukraine Update
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Generally speaking war is slow until its fast. This was started fast, has now gotten slow, but may get fast again. We’re looking at serious re-organization of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine as likely preparation for a major assault against Ukrainian positions in the Donbas. Russia is reconstituting its military power, and we simply don’t know how much the manpower and equipment losses that Russian forces have suffered thus far will hamper their advance. We also don’t know how badly Ukrainian forces have been mauled, or how well they’ll be able to replace their losses from Western sources. The next step could involve Kursk-style tank battles in the Donbas, and at this point there are simply too many unknown variables to have a sense of how that’s going to work out. My sense is that the Ukrainians have the defensive positions and the tools necessary to make the Russian advance extremely costly, and thus that much depends on the willingness of Russian units to grind themselves into dust. At some point the US and NATO may have to ask the question “how much more treasure do we devote to a war that Ukraine cannot win,” but for now it seems the righteous thing to do is to help the Ukrainians win the war.
Some links:
- Nice rundown on all the different kinds of heavy weaponry that the West can ship Ukraine, including anti-ship missiles, fighter aircraft, and heavy armor.
- Lots of T-72s available…
- And possibly some Leopards as well…
- Here’s a list of what we know has been supplied thus far.
In other news I recorded a podcast with Iain Ballantyne of Warships: IFR on maritime aspects of the conflict, with some extra bonus content for major battleship fans. I also have some thoughts about broad, non-military ways in which China could support Russia’s war effort:
China may or may not eventually supply Russian armed forces currently fighting in Ukraine; much will depend on how long the war lasts and Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield.
However, even if China does not send Russia weapons it can support Russia in other, less risky ways. China can provide social, economic, financial, and diplomatic cover for Russia’s war, even though the effort may hurt China’s relationship with the West and turn Russia into a permanent Chinese client state.