The Next Drone War

Everyone will be watching how Russia and Ukraine use drones if the balloon goes up…

Drones have been used on the battlefield for a long time and in a wide variety of ways. It is an oversimplification of the history of drone warfare to draw a tight distinction between reconnaissance and strike. Even early drones were sometimes used in strike roles, and the most modern strike drones work so well in part because they can provide a map of the battlefield. Over the last decades drones have demonstrated transformative potential in certain kinds of conflicts, especially in permissive, low-intensity wars. Drones make possible long-term surveillance, combined with the ever-present threat of a lethal strike.

The situation is pretty fucking disconcerting at the moment. Launching a war on Superbowl weekend while the Olympics are still on is some inspired chaos muppetry. Russia’s window for invasion closes in mid-March because the mud makes maneuver warfare pretty much impossible. Indeed, Russia has already waited long enough that it has expended a lot of its leverage over Germany. But Russia does not seem to judge that the Ukrainian military will put up much of a fight, meaning that everything short of a siege of Kiev could get wrapped up in short order.