Russia Update

The latest… Russia has confirmed that its recognition of the separatist regions extends to the borders that those regions have declared for themselves. This would seem to include large portions of the regions which are currently controlled by Ukraine and occupied by Ukrainian armed forces. This makes an escalation of the military conflict (there is already considerable shelling) extremely likely unless Ukraine withdraws those forces. Russian forces have entered the region in large numbers bearing official Russian livery.

UPDATE: Russia now hedging on how far DNR/LNR actually extend.

My sense is this… Russia will escalate within and around the two separatist regions as a prelude to annexing and absorbing them. The rest of the forces deployed around Ukraine will act as a Sword of Damocles to deter Ukraine from reinforcing its position in the east. But… Russia may use *any* Ukrainian resistance in the separatist region as an excuse to trigger a full invasion. My guess is option one but option two is on the table.

Germany has stepped up:

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that Germany would halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that would link his country with Russia, one of the strongest moves yet by the West to punish the Kremlin for recognizing two separatist regions in Ukraine.

The German leader’s announcement came hours after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia ordered armed forces to the separatist regions, the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

This is a reversible decision but the Russians are already irritated:

The US and the EU have (rightly, in my view) held back on the most serious sanctions thus far. There’s a very delicate dance between punishment and deterrence, and while it’s still possible every step ought to be taken to modify Russia’s behavior, keeping the most dangerous tools in reserve.

In other news I’d prefer not to linger too long on the Tankie set, but Branko Marcetic is either a liar, a fool, or both. Jacobin is what happens when an ideological community decides to outsource its thinking to chucklefuck Brooklyn thinkfluencers.