Last Gasps of Diplomacy?

Macron may have given it the last, best shot:

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis between Ukraine and Russia continue. The latest initiative has come from President Emmanuel Macron of France, who apparently wants to leverage the crisis to improve Paris’s position within Europe and restore some aspect of France’s independent diplomatic weight. Diplomacy requires give and take, and the fact that Macron expects to get something doesn’t mean he can’t make something happen. There should be no question, however, that crisis diplomacy is fraught with danger.

President Putin is reported to have been unamused:

After more than five hours of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, there was little doubt Emmanuel Macron walked into the grizzly bear’s den — and he got mauled.

With more than 100,000 Russian troops and heavy weapons massed on the Ukrainian border, the French president and his advisers had insisted that, among Western leaders, Macron was uniquely positioned to convince Putin to follow a path of de-escalation.

Instead, Putin chose the path of defiance, declaring that Crimea is Russia and that if Ukraine joined NATO, European countries would “automatically” be at war with Russia. Jabbing a finger in the air at a French reporter, he said that “Russia is a military superpower and a nuclear superpower” and warned: “There will be no winners and you will be drawn into this conflict against your own will.”

It does not appear that things worked out in the way that Macron had hoped, although of course the events may play differently in France and the rest of Europe. I’ll say again what I’ve said before; Russia may not invade Ukraine, but Putin is trying very, very hard to make it look like he’s about to invade Ukraine.