To my mind the evidence ought to compel a conviction on the most serious charge Derek Chauvin faces, i.e., second-degree murder conviction, which under Minnesota law consists of “causing the death of a human being, without intent to cause that death, while committing or attempting to commit another felony” (the felony here being third degree assault).
Unfortunately I think this is unlikely. The most we can hope for, I believe, is a compromise verdict, which convicts Chauvin of either third degree murder, that is, “unintentionally causing someone’s death by committing an act that is eminently dangerous to other persons while exhibiting a depraved mind, with reckless disregard for human life,” or, more likely, second degree manslaughter, “culpable negligence where a person creates an unreasonable risk and consciously takes the chance of causing death or great bodily harm to someone else.”
The single most likely outcome, however, is probably a hung jury. George Floyd was a large Black man who struggled with drug addiction, had a criminal record, and apparently resisted arrest. That he was obviously murdered by being suffocated for several minutes after he could no longer have been a threat to anyone is not going to be enough to convict a white cop of even a very watered down version of the crime Chauvin committed.
I hope I’m wrong.