This poll of the state that was the site of Trump’s most improbable upset in 2016 is…something:
Following the first debate of the 2020 election, Joe Biden has taken his largest lead of the Presidential race in Michigan, leading Donald Trump 48.0%- 39.2% — a lead of 8.8%. Trump has lost three points of support since the September post-convention survey.
There has been a major shift among voters over the age of 65 towards Joe Biden. Older voters now support Biden over Trump by a margin of 59.1%-29.2% — a nearly 30-point lead for Joe Biden. Biden led senior voters by 7.5% in the Post-Convention survey. Senior voters have shifted by 22 points since early September.
20% of voters over 65 have already completed their absentee ballot. A total of 76.6% of senior voters plan to vote absentee/mail.
There has also been a shift among voters aged 50-64 that has long been a base of support for Donald Trump. In early September, Trump led these voters 51.8%-42.2 – a 9.6% advantage. Now the race is tied with both candidates at 46%.
Strange — “grandma should die so Timmy can sit at the bar at Hooter’s on Sunday” seemed like a winning message to appeal to the most likely voters, not sure what went wrong.
National polls are less dramatic but suggest that Trump’s debate performance caused him to further bleed support in a race in which he was already losing and in which people are already voting. Apparently “effete decorum” is more popular that professional shitposters would have you believe.
One underrated aspect of Trump’s win in 2016 is that he was actually perceived by voters as being closer to the center than Clinton (partly because he occasionally expressed unorthodox Republican views and partly because the media chose to highlight his unorthodox positions much more than his orthodox ones.) Governing exclusively from Paul Ryan’s playbook has completely destroyed that advantage; he’s actually improved his support among conservatives but his given much more than that back with independent and Democrats. Nothing is certain but it’s hard to see this as a formula that can even make the election close enough to ratfuck.