When will facts stop contradicting the GOP? (Repealing Obamacare will be great for the economy edition.)
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From my inbox to you – Completely unsurprising findings about the impact repealing some aspects of Obamacare will have on employment and the economy. I hope they’re working on the one that shows what will happen if the GOP makes radical cuts to Medicare.
The study focused solely on the effects of repeal of Medicaid expansion and premium tax credits. It did not explicitly model the effects of other provisions under discussion for repeal such as elimination of some taxes and penalties. However, other research suggests that the effect of these changes on employment would be modest.
The research finds that the effects of repealing the tax credits and Medicaid expansions could include:
About 2.6 million jobs lost across all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2019. Job losses would affect every state, but 10 would suffer the biggest hits: California (334,000 jobs), Florida (181,000), Texas (175,000), Pennsylvania (137,000), New York (131,000), Ohio (126,000), Illinois (114,000), Michigan (102,000), New Jersey (86,000), and North Carolina (76,000).
•One-third (912,000) of the total 2.6 million job losses would be concentrated in health care; nurses, health technicians, and other medical personnel would likely be laid off in 2019. The remaining two-thirds of losses would be in other industries, including construction, real estate, retail trade, finance, and insurance.
•Gross state product, the state equivalent of national gross domestic product, could fall by $256 billion in 2019 alone. From 2019 to 2023 that same economic indicator could drop by $1.5 trillion.
•The resulting economic disruption could trigger reductions in state and local tax revenues, amounting to $48 billion lost over five years.
•State and local governments would get hit with shrinking tax revenues at the same time they are facing increased demand for health care services from the millions of people losing their health insurance. States could be juggling painful choices about what services to cut or whether to raise tax rates to maintain a safety net for their residents.
•All states could suffer economic distress if the Medicaid expansions are cancelled—even the 19 states that have not expanded the program. That’s because the economic benefits of Medicaid expansion flow across state lines: businesses and individuals who benefit from the economic growth buy goods and services not only in their own states but also in other expansion and nonexpansion states.
I’m not sure when Trump will get around to throwing a Tweetertantrump about this. Grousing about tomorrow’s security meeting is sure to keep him busy for a while. Maybe Ryan will do it instead.
