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2016 HOF voting

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w and l

Updated with actual results

Since I don’t see why Farley should be the only front pager who gets to make wildly inaccurate predictions, here’s my guess as to what percentage of HOF voters will put various players on their ballot:

Griffey: 96%

Actual: 99.3%

Sets new record for highest percentage vote total ever, with just three of 440 voters leaving him off their ballots.

Piazza: 75.5%

Actual: 83.0% Scores standing up this year. About time: clearly the greatest offensive player ever at the position.

Raines: 71%

Actual: 69.8%

Will probably get it next year, but come on this is ridiculous.

Bagwell: 58%

Actual: 71.6%

Huge jump; seems a lock for next year’s vote now.

Bonds: 39%

Actual: 44.3%

Good to see some momentum building

Schilling: 37%

Actual: 52.3%

Now seems like a safe bet to be voted in by the BBWA eventually

Clemens: 36%

Actual: 45.2%

See Bonds, Barry. Looks like this should take about five more years.

Hoffman: 32%

Actual: 67.3%

Wow, I missed this one completely. Shockingly close to a first ballot election. Almost a lock for next year obviously.

Mussina: 31%

Actual: 43%. Another guy whose numbers will win out eventually, especially as advanced stats replace traditional ones in player evaluation.

Trammell: 30%

Actual: 40.9%. Hadn’t realized this was his last year of eligibility, and he no doubt got a bump from that. Probably a better player than the median HOF shortstop.

E. Martinez: 29%

Actual: 43.2%

Now appears to actually have a chance. His numbers will get him in eventually, even if not via the BBWA.

L. Smith: 27%

Actual: 34.1%

Will have to wait for the veterans committee.

Kent: 16%

Actual: 16.6%

McGriff: 15%

Actual: 20.9%

The crime dog is getting killed by the fact that the offensive explosion hit in the middle of his career rather than toward the beginning.

L. Walker: 14%

Actual: 15.5%

Is getting killed by people over-correcting for Coors Field.

McGwire: 11%

Actual: 12.3%

A marginal candidate but damn.

Sheffield: 9%

Actual: 11.6%

Surprisingly little support for a guy who was a legitimately great hitter for a long time.

Edmonds: 8%

Actual: 2.5%

Sosa and Garciaparra fall off the ballot with less than 5%, along with all the other first-timers besides Griffey, Edmonds, and Hoffman.

Actual: Sosa just barely stayed on, at 7%. Billy Wagner also stayed on, at 10%.

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