NFL Playoff Picks/Open Thread
By I really should retire from public sports predictions after an unusually good run with the NHL last year, but I won’t. As always, remember that when you’re right 40% of the time you’re wrong 60% of the time.
CAROLINA (-6 1/2) over Arizona This is where right-thinking people are supposed to denounce a not-even .500 team getting a home playoff game against a division winner. Only I don’t object to the system in principle — a balanced schedule is impossible, so division winners should be privileged over wildcards. In addition, in 16-game samples records aren’t always reliable indicators of team quality, and this is a case in point: Arizona’s run of luck in close games notwithstanding, these teams are similarly unimpressive. And, of course, Arizona’s below-average DVOA was mostly compiled without the starting services of the worst QB ever to start a playoff game. The market understands all of this better than it would have 5 years ago, and 6.5 is a lot to give up to take a below-average team in a playoff game. But it would be hard to get the line high enough for me to take Ryan Lindley.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore If real money were involved in this, I wouldn’t put 5 bucks on this game if I was in Vegas. You can make a good case for the Ravens, who are getting 3 points as a top-5 DVOA team. Pittsburgh’s long-deteriorating defense has hit rock bottom, and if Tim Tebow can shred a late-period Dick LeBeau game plan in his second-last ever professional start, Joe Flacco certainly can. But not only do I put less weight on the loss of Le’Veon Bell than most people, the damage is particularly minimized in this game, as the Ravens are fielding a very good run defense but a secondary the late John Idzik would be embarrassed to have assembled. This figures to be battle between aerial attacks even more than usual, and I’ll take Roethlisberger over Flacco.
Cincinnati (+3 1/2) over INDIANAPOLIS I don’t think Lewis and Dalton have any special inability to win in the playoffs beyond the latter’s mediocrity. And if we leave this aside, the teams are essentially dead even. It’s hard to bet against Luck, only despite some early MVP rumblings he conspicuously failed to advance into the elite ranks of QBs this year. The Colts also apparently intend to pretend that Trent Richardson could still be an NFL-caliber player. The market is trending heavily in the direction of the Bengals — the line opened at 6 — tempting me to switch back, but I don’t want to take 4 favorites so I’ll reluctantly take the points even with Green probably out.
DALLAS (-6 1/2) over Detroit Like almost everyone, I was wrong about the Cowboys this year — not because I don’t like the always-underrated Romo but because I didn’t think their defense could even be competitive. I guess it could have been foreseeable that moving on from a 325-year-old Monte Kiffin would help, but Rod Marinelli did a remarkable job making this defense not-terrible. It’s still not a good defense, and I don’t think the Cowboys are a championship-caliber team. But while the Lions should be able to contain Murray I don’t think they have the offense to take advantage of the Cowboy weaknesses — Stafford remains Daltonseque even with impressive passing weapons, and like the Colts the Lions running game is so bad you can’t ignore it entirely (Bell, the 38th-ranked RB in DVOA, barely beats Richardson at #41.) I’ll be rooting for my team-in-law, but I can’t pick them.