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Ohio

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Probably the best thing Obama has going for him in his reelection campaign is that John Kasich so overreached in his union-busting tactics, making the people of Ohio very angry at the Republican Party. My year in rural Ohio was eye-opening, having coincided with the 2010 midterms. Ohio is a strongly pro-union, pro-economic justice as any state in the country. But the good people of the Buckeye State are also susceptible to the cultural warfare card Republicans play. That’s the threat to Obama. Particularly when you get into southeast Ohio, the open racism skyrockets. And had Kasich not reminded Ohioans that Republicans will take away your good jobs, Ohio could very much be a toss-up. But it really isn’t and combined with Republican failures to make inroads in Pennsylvania, the electoral math still looks grim for Romney, even assuming Ryan flips Wisconsin.

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