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My Questions

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Reading Silver, I have two questions:

  • Is there any reason to think Perry is more electable than Bachmann?
  • Is there and reason to think Perry is less radical or more competent than Bachmann?

On the first, I’d say “probably not.”   On the second, I’d say “definitely not.”

…I should perhaps clarify a couple of points:

  • I am not saying that Perry is unelectable — on the contrary, given the economy anybody who can win the GOP primary can absolutely win, including Bachmann and Perry.
  • Relatedly,  in a national race, for one primary-winning candidate to be more or less electable than another is a very high bar.   Candidate identity just isn’t a very important variable.
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