MLB Preview 2011: The Senior Circuit

West:  1. SF 2. Col 3. L.A.  4.ARI 5. S.D. The defending champs are likely to get worse years from their overachieving veterans but more value from their young players, and of course the rotation in the best in the league west of Philly.    The Rockies are interesting, but the lineup has some holes, their best player has trouble staying on the field and their best pitcher tailed off substantially in the second half last year.   I like the Dodger rotation, but the lineup ends at the #4 hole and an organization in turmoil is unlikely to improve their hand during the year.   Last year, nobody thought the Padres were good, and despite the fact that they nearly made the playoffs…I still don’t think they’re good; apart from the bullpen it’s hard to see the virtues and by far their best player is gone, although I like the pickups of Hudson and Maybin.   So in a coin flip I’ll pick the youngish talent of the DBacks to finally push forward a bit.

Central 1. Mil 2. STL 3. Cin 4. Chi 5. Pit 6. Hou I’m reluctant to jump on bandwagons created by offseason acquisitions, but the Brewers’ were tailored to their needs, and with the Wainwright injury I think they deserve to be favorites in this thin division.  The Cards, with best player in the game and a manager and coach with an extensive history of getting the most out of pitchers with modest credentials, still have to be respected.   With apologies to Farley he Reds are like the Brewers but not as good; they could win again given some breaks but I think they need a consolation year.  The Cubs played better after teh departure of Uncle Lou, and I like the Garza pickup, but they remain unimpressive offensively and defensively.   The Pirates have more future than the Astros and may pull ahead of them this year, although they remain pretty hideous.   But the ‘Stros…bad lineup and mediocre rotation with no future…it’s a rough situation.

East: 1. Phi 2. Atl(*) 3. Fla 4. NY 5.  Wash I mentioned last year that while the current Phillies group felt like a great team, they had yet to win 95 games even once.   Well, they cleared the hurdle last year and added the biggest prize in last year’s free agent crop.   But they remain a talented but flawed team, just reconfigured.   The rotation is indeed the best in baseball — although only one of the aces is under 30 — but this has served to conceal the fact that it’s the only really good part of the team.  The only elite player remaining in the lineup is hurt with no timetable for return, and the bullpen isn’t very good either.   The comparisons with the 2-way Braves of 90s tempt me to pick them second to prove a point, but the while the Phils don’t have healthy legitimate stars in the lineup anymore they also don’t have a lot of holes, so I think their pitching will be good enough to stay ahead of a good Braves team.   The Marlins have an impressive core of young and prime talent (Ramirez, Johnson, Stanton) that could get enough help to contend this year, although I think they’re a year away.   If you wanted to be optimistic about the Mets you could point out that they outscored their opposition last year  despite a ton of bad luck with their lineup.   That’s true as far as it goes, but on the other hand their starting pitching was much better than could have been expected — with Santana out, the only pitcher I’d expect to be even above-average is Dickey, a 36-year old with one good season under his belt.   And it’s not like you’d want to bet on Beltran or Bay being All-Stars this year either. The manager is a retread and the ownership is in worse shape than Arthur Penske,  so things will get worse before they get better.   Indeed, I’m tempted to pick them last, but the Nationals are sort of the rich man’s Pirates, some long-range promise but a present that’s still pretty grim.