“Don’t Seem to Have a Theory of Success”
By Robert Haddick has predictions:
From a military perspective, the coalition air campaign looks to be ahead of plan – the burning tanks near Benghazi show that. But without a quick collapse of the Qaddafi regime, coalition policymakers haven’t defined a proper end-state and don’t seem to have a theory of success. Qaddafi, on the other hand, does have a theory of success. He will switch to irregular warfare, using civilians to mask his military operations from coalition air power. Libya’s eastern cities are likely to become the key terrain for both sides, both for cover and for support. And coalition policymakers should expect Qaddafi to improve his propaganda skills as he attempts to use the global media and perhaps a new Oil-for-Food program to fracture international support for the intervention. The Libya conflict presents Western policymakers with one more opportunity to fight an irregular war, a skill they have yet to convincingly master.
Again, I quite hope that Gaddafi will just die or something and that everything will work out. I have a hard time seeing that happen, though.