O’Connor
By Wow. The strange thing is that while this wouldn’t have been unexpected at all last year, I was thinking so much about Rehnquist that I didn’t really think about this. Anyway, this is a much more divisive and important nomination. Not, directly on Roe–which has six votes–but in some important cases O’Connor is a crucial fifth vote (affirmative action, for example.) A Scalia-type justice replacing O’Connor will make a major difference, and that’s plainly where Bush is headed.
Although it’s now an associate rather than chief, I guess I’d still say Luttig is the most likely appointee. In some ways, he makes more sense as an associate than chief. Garza #2, Clement #3.
More once I’ve had a chance to absorb this…